Did political constraints bind during transition? Evidence from Czech elections 1990-2002

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dc.contributor.author Doyle, Orla
dc.contributor.author Walsh, Patrick P.
dc.date.accessioned 2008-09-24T16:05:18Z
dc.date.available 2008-09-24T16:05:18Z
dc.date.issued 2005-08
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10197/547
dc.description.abstract Many theoretical models of transition are driven by the assumption that economic decision making is subject to political constraints. In this paper we empirically test whether the winners and losers of economic reform determined voting behaviour in the first five national elections in the Czech Republic. We propose that voters, taking stock of endowments from the planning era, could predict whether they would become "winners" or "losers" of transition. Using survey data we measure the percentage of individuals by region who were "afraid" and "not afraid" of economic reform in 1990. We define the former as potential "winners" who should vote for pro-reform parties, while latter are potential "losers" who should support leftwing parties. Using national election results and regional economic indicators, we demonstrate that there is persistence in support for pro-reform and communist parties driven by prospective voting based on initial conditions in 1990. As a result, we show that regional unemployment rates in 2002 are good predictors of regional voting patterns in 1990. en
dc.format.extent 4304 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Institute for the Study of Labor en
dc.relation.ispartofseries IZA Discussion Paper Series en
dc.relation.ispartofseries No. 1719 en
dc.subject Political constraints en
dc.subject Prospective economic voting en
dc.subject Initial conditions en
dc.subject.classification D72 en
dc.subject.classification E24 en
dc.subject.classification E61 en
dc.subject.lcsh Voting research--Czech Republic en
dc.subject.lcsh Economic policy--Czech Republic en
dc.subject.lcsh Unemployment--Regional disparities en
dc.title Did political constraints bind during transition? Evidence from Czech elections 1990-2002 en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.internal.authorurl Orla Doyle (web page) en
dc.internal.authorurl http://geary.ucd.ie/Table/About-Items/?ref=7484006 en
dc.internal.authorurl Patrick P. Walsh (web page) en
dc.internal.authorurl http://geary.ucd.ie/index.php/Table/About-Items/?ref=13622318 en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Orla Walsh - Email: orla.doyle@ucd.ie; Tel: +353 1 716 7637 en
dc.internal.authorcontactother Patrick P. Walsh - Email: ppwalsh@ucd.ie; Tel: +353 1 716 8435 en
dc.internal.authorid UCD0007 en
dc.internal.authorid UCD0027 en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.internal.webversions Publisher's version en
dc.internal.webversions ftp://repec.iza.org/RePEc/Discussionpaper/dp1719.pdf en
dc.status Peer reviewed en
dc.neeo.contributor Walsh|Patrick P.|aut|UCD0027
dc.neeo.contributor Doyle|Orla|aut|UCD0007


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