Incumbent-quality advantage and counterfactual electoral stagnation in the U.S. Senate

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dc.contributor.author Pastine, Ivan
dc.contributor.author Pastine, Tuvana
dc.contributor.author Redmond, Paul
dc.date.accessioned 2012-09-03T14:11:27Z
dc.date.available 2012-09-03T14:11:27Z
dc.date.issued 2012-05
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3776
dc.description.abstract This paper presents a simple statistical exercise to provide a benchmark for the degree of electoral stagnation without direct officeholder benefits or challenger scare-off effects. Here electoral stagnation arises solely due to incumbent-quality advantage where the higher quality candidate wins the election. The simulation is calibrated using the observed drop-out rates in the U.S. Senate. From 1946 to 2010, the observed incumbent reelection rate is 81.7 percent; the benchmark with incumbent-quality advantage alone is able to generate a reelection rate of 78.2 percent. In the sub-sample from 1946 to 1978, the reelection rate from the simulation is almost identical to the observed. The rates diverge in the second part of the sub-sample from 1980 to 2010, possibly indicating an increase in electoral stagnation due to incumbency advantage arising for reasons other than incumbent-quality advantage. en
dc.description.sponsorship Not applicable en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher University College Dublin. School of Economics en
dc.relation.ispartofseries UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series en
dc.relation.ispartofseries WP12/18 en
dc.relation.requires Economists Online Collection & RePEc en
dc.subject Incumbent-quality advantage en
dc.subject Counterfactual electoral stagnation en
dc.subject.lcsh Voting research en
dc.subject.lcsh United States. Congress. Senate--Elections en
dc.title Incumbent-quality advantage and counterfactual electoral stagnation in the U.S. Senate en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.internal.webversions http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/WP12_18.pdf en
dc.status Not peer reviewed en
dc.neeo.contributor Pastine|Ivan|aut|
dc.neeo.contributor Pastine|Tuvana|aut|
dc.neeo.contributor Redmond|Paul|aut|
dc.description.admin ti, ke, ab - TS 15.05.12 en


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