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dc.contributor.author Kelly, Morgan
dc.contributor.author Ó Gráda, Cormac
dc.date.accessioned 2010-12-10T14:44:58Z
dc.date.available 2010-12-10T14:44:58Z
dc.date.issued 2010-04-16
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2649
dc.description.abstract We investigate by how much the Little Ice Age reduced the harvests on which pre-industrial Europeans relied for survival. We find that weather strongly affected crop yields, but can find little evidence that western Europe experienced long swings or structural breaks in climate. Instead, annual summer temperature reconstructions between the fourteenth and twentieth centuries behave as almost independent draws from a distribution with a constant mean but time varying volatility; while winter temperatures behave similarly until the late nineteenth century when they rise markedly, consistent with anthropogenic global warming. Our results suggest that the existing consensus about a Little Ice Age in western Europe stems from a Slutsky effect, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing data prior to analysis induces spurious cyclicality in uncorrelated data. en
dc.description.sponsorship Not applicable en
dc.format.extent 1656990 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher University College Dublin. School of Economics en
dc.relation.ispartofseries UCD Centre for Economic Research Working Paper Series en
dc.relation.ispartofseries WP 10 14 en
dc.relation.requires Economists Online Collection en
dc.subject.lcsh Europe--Climate--History en
dc.subject.lcsh Crops and climate--Europe--History en
dc.subject.lcsh Crops and climate--Economic aspects--Europe en
dc.title The economic impact of the little ice age en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.internal.webversions Publisher's version en
dc.internal.webversions http://www.ucd.ie/t4cms/wp10_14.pdf en
dc.status Not peer reviewed en
dc.neeo.contributor Kelly|Morgan|aut|UCD0013 en
dc.neeo.contributor Ó Gráda|Cormac|aut|UCD0018 en


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