The use of predictive likelihood to estimate the distribution of extreme bridge traffic load effect

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dc.contributor.author Caprani, Colin C.
dc.contributor.author O'Brien, Eugene J.
dc.date.accessioned 2010-08-09T16:12:41Z
dc.date.available 2010-08-09T16:12:41Z
dc.date.copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd en
dc.date.issued 2010-03
dc.identifier.citation Structural Safety en
dc.identifier.issn 0167-4730
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2329
dc.description.abstract To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required. Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. An estimate of the distributions of lifetime maximum load effect facilitates the reliability approach to bridge assessment. Results are presented for some cases of bridge loading, compared to a return period approach and significant differences identified. The implications for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed. en
dc.description.sponsorship European Research Council en
dc.format.extent 193668 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher Elsevier en
dc.relation.requires Critical Infrastructure Group Research Collection en
dc.rights All rights reserved en
dc.subject Bridge en
dc.subject Statistics en
dc.subject Load en
dc.subject Predictive likelihood en
dc.subject Probabilistic en
dc.subject Extreme value en
dc.subject Traffic en
dc.subject Monte Carlo en
dc.subject Simulation en
dc.subject.lcsh Bridges--Live loads en
dc.subject.lcsh Structural dynamics--Statistical methods en
dc.subject.lcsh Extreme value theory en
dc.title The use of predictive likelihood to estimate the distribution of extreme bridge traffic load effect en
dc.type Journal Article en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.internal.webversions Publisher's version en
dc.internal.webversions http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2009.09.001 en
dc.status Peer reviewed en
dc.identifier.volume 32 en
dc.identifier.issue 2 en
dc.identifier.startpage 138 en
dc.identifier.endpage 144 en
dc.identifier.doi 10.1016/j.strusafe.2009.09.001
dc.neeo.contributor Caprani|Colin C.|aut| en
dc.neeo.contributor O'Brien|Eugene J.|aut| en
dc.description.admin Record must link to the DOI version - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2009.09.001. DG 09/07/10 ti ke SB. 23/7/10 en


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