Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union and implications for the objectives of monetary policy

DSpace/Manakin Repository

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Bredin, Donal
dc.contributor.author Fountas, Stilianos
dc.date.accessioned 2009-06-15T13:59:42Z
dc.date.available 2009-06-15T13:59:42Z
dc.date.copyright 2005, Centre for Financial Markets en
dc.date.issued 2005
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1184
dc.description.abstract We use a very general bivariate GARCH-M model and EU monthly data covering the 1962-2003 period to test for the impact of real (output growth) and nominal (inflation) macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in the majority of countries uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related to the average growth rate and the effect in most countries is negative. Second, contrary to expectations,inflation uncertainty in most cases improves the output growth performance of an economy. Third, inflation and output uncertainty have a mixed effect on inflation. These results imply that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance. The first two results also imply that the ECB should focus its monetary policy strategy on stabilising output growth rather than inflation. en
dc.format.extent 181865 bytes
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher University College Dublin. School of Business. Centre for Financial Markets en
dc.relation.ispartofseries Centre for Financial Markets working paper series en
dc.relation.ispartofseries WP-06-03 en
dc.subject Inflation en
dc.subject Output growth en
dc.subject Macroeconomic uncertainty en
dc.subject Monetary policy en
dc.subject GARCH models en
dc.subject.lcsh Inflation (Finance)--Econometric models en
dc.subject.lcsh Economic development--Econometric models en
dc.subject.lcsh Macroeconomics en
dc.subject.lcsh Monetary policy--European Union countries en
dc.title Macroeconomic uncertainty and performance in the European Union and implications for the objectives of monetary policy en
dc.type Working Paper en
dc.internal.availability Full text available en
dc.internal.webversions Publisher's version en
dc.internal.webversions http://www.ucd.ie/bankingfinance/docs/wp/wp0603.pdf en
dc.status Not peer reviewed en
dc.neeo.contributor Bredin|Donal|aut|
dc.neeo.contributor Fountas|Stilianos|aut|


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

This item is available under the Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Ireland. No item may be reproduced for commercial purposes. For other possible restrictions on use please refer to the publisher's URL where this is made available, or to notes contained in the item itself. Other terms may apply.

If you are a publisher or author and have copyright concerns for any item, please email research.repository@ucd.ie and the item will be withdrawn immediately. The author or person responsible for depositing the article will be contacted within one business day.

Search Research Repository


Advanced Search

Browse