http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1800 Thu, 20 Jun 2013 11:35:14 GMT 2013-06-20T11:35:14Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4336 Let's accept a smaller slice of a shrinking cake. The Irish Congress of Trade Unions and Irish public sector unions in crisis Erne, Roland In April 2013, Irish public sector workers have overwhelmingly rejected a new national collective bargaining agreement in a union ballot. If a majority of union members in a majority of public sector unions within the Irish Congress of Trade Union (ICTU) had endorsed the proposed 'Croke Park 2' agreement, the public sector wage bill would have been cut by another 7 per cent with union approval, although public sector workers have already suffered a reduction in their earnings in the order of 25 per cent since 2009. This development raises two questions. First, why is there a sudden need for an additional one-billion-euro cut in Irish public sector pay? Secondly, why were the leaders of Ireland's biggest public sector unions - namely, SIPTU and IMPACT - campaigning for a 'yes' vote despite the pay cuts that the proposed deal entailed? Thu, 01 Aug 2013 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4336 2013-08-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4335 Book review of 'Anne Dufrense. Le salaire, un enjeu pour l'euro-syndicalisme. Histoire de la coordination des négotiations collectives nationales, Presses Universitaires de Nancy: Nancy, 2011' Erne, Roland Thu, 01 Aug 2013 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4335 2013-08-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4271 Internet Filtering: Rhetoric, Legitimacy, Accountability and Responsibility McIntyre, T. J.; Scott, Colin This paper argues that the automatic and opaque nature of internet filtering, together with the fact that it is generally implemented by intermediaries, raises new problems for the law and in particular may tend to undermine aspects of freedom of expression. The paper starts by challenging the rhetoric underlying the use of the term “filtering” and suggests that the use of other terms such as "blocking" or "censorware" may be more appropriate. It then considers where filtering fits into the modalities of governance and the resulting issues of legitimacy and accountability. As regards legitimacy it argues that the use of technology to exert control over internet speech frequently undermines aspects of the rule of law concerning both the process for and content of norms governing behaviour. In relation to accountability, the paper argues that where it is not clear what is being blocked, why, or by whom, the operation of mechanisms of accountability - whether by way of judicial review, media scrutiny, or otherwise - is greatly reduced. Finally the paper suggests that, as compared with control through legal instruments, filtering may rob users of moral agency or responsibility in their use of the internet, with the implication that they may freely do whatever it is technically possible to do, with no necessity of moral engagement in their activities. Wed, 01 Oct 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4271 2008-10-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4260 Fenians, Foreigners and Jury Trials in Ireland 1865-69 Howlin, Niamh Sun, 01 Aug 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4260 2010-08-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4259 The Terror of Their Lives: Irish Jurors Experiences Howlin, Niamh A commentator noted in 1881 that Irishmen regarded jury service as “the greatest burden that can be inflicted upon them … they would be delighted if trial by jury was suspended tomorrow.” He later added, “[o]f course an enormous outcry would be raised about it in the national press, and in public meetings; but jurors … would give anything in the world not to serve … because it is the terror of their lives.” Much has been written about the poor state of the nineteenth-century Irish jury system, and it is certainly true that for various social, economic and political reasons, in comparison with that in England, the Irish system appears to have operated in a way that fell somewhat short of ideal. This article seeks to provide an understanding of the realities facing the jurors themselves, and will examine their experiences of the justice system before, during, and after the trial. Mon, 01 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4259 2011-08-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4258 Controlling Jury Composition in Nineteenth-Century Ireland Howlin, Niamh Difficulties in securing convictions in nineteenth-century Ireland led the authorities to resort to various methods of ensuring that petty juries delivered guilty verdicts in cases where this was clearly warranted by the evidence. This article examines some of the ‘stratagems’ put forward by David Johnson and suggests a number of other practices which were used, arguing that many of these mechanisms centred around controlling the composition of trial juries. Examples included altering the property qualifications for jurors, the system of asking jurors to ‘stand aside’ and the use of fines to compel attendance. While some of these were the legitimate exercise of established procedures, it will be seen that the crown on occasion abused or overused its powers. Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4258 2009-12-02T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4168 Employment and remuneration of Irish chartered accountants: evidence of gender differences Brennan, Niamh; Nolan, Patrick Literature on gender based salary differentials has proliferated in recent years but there have been few studies on salary differentials in the accounting profession. This paper examines factors influencing remuneration of Irish chartered accountants. Responses to the Leinster Society of Chartered Accountants (LSCA) annual salary survey in 1995 and 1996 were analysed. Employee-related and employer-related factors influencing remuneration were examined including Gender, Work experience, Level of responsibility, Employment contract and Size and Industry.  Gender was a significant explanatory variable in explaining differences in salaries paid to employees working in non-audit businesses. Gender, however, was not found to be significant in explaining differences in salaries paid in audit practices. As partners in auditing firms are not included in this research (because partners do not earn a salary) this finding must be interpreted cautiously. Mon, 01 Jun 1998 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4168 1998-06-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4164 European industrial relations after the crisis: a postscript Erne, Roland Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4164 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3933 Europäisches Parlament Erne, Roland Wed, 01 Jan 2003 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3933 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3932 Le relazioni industriali europee dopo la crisi. Verso un interventismo regolatorio post-democratico? Erne, Roland L'attuale programma di liberalizzazioni europee sta minando il consenso sociale che era alla base dell'integrazione europea. Le ripercussioni gravissime sui sistemi sociali e di r.i. nei paesi più in difficoltà. Il carattere a-democratico di queste politiche. La previsione, e la speranza, di un periodo di crescenti conflitti sociali contro questa politica di austerità, in grado di scardinare definitivamente il modello sociale europeo. Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3932 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3931 Flexicurity - Useful Oxymoron or Genuine Class Compromise? Erne, Roland Wed, 20 Jul 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3931 2011-07-20T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3930 Bürgerrechte Erne, Roland Wed, 01 Jan 2003 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3930 2003-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3929 European trade-union strategies: Between technocratic efficiency and democratic legitimacy Erne, Roland The democratic nature of the EU, or the lack of it, has never been so important (Schmitter 2000; Erne et. al. 1995). It is generally acknowledged that the existing governance structures and mechanism of the EU “are not able to provide democratic legitimation for the EU polity as a whole” (Héritier 1999: 208; European Commission 2003a: 38). Indeed, a democratic polis needs as well as constitutional bodies, a tight network of intermediate institutions and social organisations such as the unions, other civil society associations and the media (Lepsius 1993). These offer more possibilities for citizens’ participation in the political system and thus an increase in its legitimacy. Hence, the making and performance of European civil society organisations is linked to the constitution of a democratic EU polity. This chapter analyses one potential agent of Euro-democratisation, namely organized labour. Although unions have often played an important role in national democratisation processes, this does not necessarily promise a similar role for them at the EU level. Authoritarian regimes typically prohibit free trade-union activity and consequently impel unions to take part in democratisation movements, but the current institutional setting of the EU provides alternative options for organized labour, namely Eurodemocratisation, Euro-technocracy and (re-) nationalisation. I will assess the tensions between these options in a comparison of the different strategies of trade unions in two transnational company merger cases.1 While the unions and European Works Councils involved seem to have adopted a Euro-democratic strategy in the ABB-Alstom merger case, they apparently pursued a Euro-technocratic strategy in the parallel Alcan-Pechiney-Algroup case. The adoption of different strategies seems surprising since it was the same European, German and French unions that played a decisive role in both cases. This indicates that unions have a range of options, something which leads one to reject any kind of determinism regarding the role of civil society organisations in the EU integration process. Sun, 01 Oct 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3929 2006-10-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3928 European Unions after the Global Crisis Erne, Roland The economic and financial crisis has discredited the idea of a self-regulating market. Yet, it remains to be seen what measures society will be taking to protect itself against future fallouts of global markets. There is a growing consensus that the economy needs to be governed by tighter regulations. But this does not necessarily mean that the economy will be subordinated to democratic politics. Nevertheless, the paper concludes that any fatalism about the prospects of a democratic counter-movement against the marketisation of society is misplaced. Without doubt, the first reactions to the crisis – namely the huge bailouts for private banks and the subsequent cutbacks in public services – do not augur well for the future of labour and egalitarian democracy. Conversely, the more socio-economic decisions are taken by tangible political and corporate elites rather than abstract market forces, the more difficult it is to mystify underlying business interests. The more visible business interests become, however, the easier it will be for social movements and trade unions to mobilise discontent and to politicise the economy. Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3928 2011-05-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3927 Gesetzliche Mindestlöhne in Irland Erne, Roland Sun, 01 Oct 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3927 2006-10-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3926 Plebiszit, Referendum und Volksbegehren. Drei Typen direkter Demokratie im europäischen Vergleich Erne, Roland In Europa finden immer mehr Volksentscheide statt. Diese Entwicklung wird im ersten Kapitel dieses Beitrages dokumentiert. Anschließend werden die europäischen Erfahrungen mit direkter Demokratie klassifiziert, verglichen und bewertet. Zum Schluss werden die Argumente diskutiert, die gemeinhin von Skeptikern und Gegnern der Stärkung direktdemokratischer Bürgerrechte vorgebracht werden. Dabei sollen unmittelbare und mittelbare Demokratie nicht gegeneinander ausgespielt werden (Rüther 1996). Vielmehr geht es in diesem Beitrag darum, die unterschiedlichen europäischen Erfahrungen mit Volksentscheiden für die deutsche Debatte über die Einführung direktdemokratischer Verfahren auf Bundesebene zu erschließen. Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3926 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3925 Le syndicalisme, acteur de la démocratisation de l'Union Européenne? Erne, Roland Les syndicats pourraient être des agents de la démocratisation de l'Union européenne pour deux raisons : primo, le syndicalisme a souvent joué un rôle substantiel dans les processus de démocratisation nationale. Secundo, les syndicats ont été parmi les premières organisations citoyennes à être impliquées dans le processus d'intégration européenne. Cependant, ces considérations ne signifient pas nécessairement qu'ils joueront un rôle important dans la démocratisation de l'UE. L'euro-démocratisation est très différente des expériences précédentes. Contrairement aux processus nationaux correspondants, elle ne peut guère être analysée comme la transition de l'autoritarisme vers la démocratie dans un Etat établi.Tandis que les régimes autoritaires excluent généralement la libre activité syndicale et poussent donc les syndicats à participer aux mouvements de démocratisation, l'organisation actuelle des institutions européennes offre des options supplémentaires pour le syndicalisme. Toutefois, une simple analyse des idéologies syndicales est source d'erreur. Les décisions stratégiques dépendent principalement à la fois des intérêts et des ressources dont dispose une organisation. J'établirai ainsi une typologie des différentes ressources de pouvoir des syndicats, en général et dans le contexte de l'UE en particulier, avant d'examiner les perspectives et les propriétés de plusieurs stratégies alternatives relatives au futur développement de l'Union européenne, à savoir l'Euro-démocratisation, l'Euro-technocratisation et la nationalisation. Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3925 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3924 A conceptual framework of impression management: new insights from psychology, sociology, and critical perspectives Brennan, Niamh; Merkl-Davies, Doris M. In this paper we develop a conceptual framework, based on the concepts of rationality and motivation, which uses theories and empirical research from psychology/behavioural finance, sociology and critical accounting to systematise, advance and challenge research on impression management. The paper focuses on research that departs from economic concepts of impression management as opportunistic managerial discretionary disclosure behaviour resulting in reporting bias or ‘cheap talk’. Using alternative rationality assumptions, such as bounded rationality, irrationality, substantive rationality and the notion of rationality as a social construct, we conceptualise impression management in alternative ways as (1) self-serving bias, (2) symbolic management and (3) accounting rhetoric. This contributes to an enhanced understanding of impression management in a corporate reporting context. Thu, 01 Dec 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3924 2011-12-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3923 New structures, forms and processes of governance in European industrial relations Léonard, Évelyne; Erne, Roland; Smismans, Stijn; Marginson, Paul The study aims to provide new information on the impact of new governance tools on the different actors of the European system of industrial relations – European institutions, governments and European social partners. Furthermore, it endeavours to: promote awareness and understanding of the new forms of governance and their impact on the different levels of industrial relations in the European Union; contribute to the ongoing debate on the Europeanisation of industrial relations in the context of the modernisation of employment relations and the evolving role of the social partners in an enlarged EU, especially against the background of the Lisbon agenda; contribute to the transparency of the results of new forms of governance in European industrial relations; and examine the interrelationship between the different levels of industrial relations as well as between different tools of new governance, such as European social dialogue and the open method of coordination. Mon, 01 Jan 2007 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3923 2007-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3922 An exploration of the relationship between language choice in CEO letters to shareholders and corporate reputation Craig, Russell J.; Brennan, Niamh This paper proposes a taxonomy to assist in more clearly locating research on aspects of the association between corporate reputation and corporate accountability reporting. We illustrate how our proposed taxonomy can be applied by using it to frame our exploration of the relationship between measures of reputation and characteristics of the language choices made in CEO letters to shareholders. Using DICTION 5.0 software we analyse the content of the CEO letters of 23 high reputation US firms and 23 low reputation US firms. Our results suggest that company size and visibility each have a positive influence on the extent to which corporate reputation is associated with the language choices made in CEO letters. These results, which are anomalous when compared with those of Geppert and Lawrence (2008), highlight the need for caution when assessing claims about the effects on corporate reputation arising from the language choice in narratives in corporate annual reports.          Sat, 01 Sep 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3922 2012-09-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3921 労働組合員 -テクノクラシー」欧州競争政策下におけるユーロ民主主義の主体？（上）ABB - Alstom 社およびAlcan - Penchiney-Algroup 社の企業合併における対照的な労働組合戦術の比較分析 (Organised labour ' A Euro-democratic social actor within the (technocratic) European competition policy (1) Erne, Roland Wed, 01 Nov 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3921 2006-11-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3920 労働組合員 - 「テクノクラシー」欧州競争政策下におけるユーロ民主主義の主体?(下）- ABB-Alstom社およびAlcan-Pechiney-Algroup社の企業合併における対照的な労働組合戦術の比較分析 (Organised labour ' A Euro-democratic social actor within the (technocratic) European competition policy (2) Erne, Roland Sun, 01 Oct 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3920 2006-10-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3915 Can Metropolitan Housing Risk be Diversified? A Cautionary Tale from the Recent Boom and Bust Cotter, John; Gabriel, Stuart A.; Roll, Richard Geographic diversification is fundamental to risk mitigation among investors and insurers of housing, mortgages, and mortgage-related derivatives. To characterize diversification potential, we provide estimates of integration, spatial correlation, and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. Results reveal a high and increasing level of integration among US markets over the decade of the 2000s, especially in California. We apply integration results to assess the risk of alternative housing investment portfolios. Portfolio simulation indicates reduced diversification potential and increased risk in the wake of estimated increases in metropolitan housing market integration. Research findings provide new insights regarding the synchronous non-performance of geographically-disparate MBS investments during the late 2000s. Sun, 01 Jul 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3915 2012-07-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3914 Commodity Futures Hedging, Risk Aversion and the Hedging Horizon Conlon, Thomas; Gençay, Ramazan; Cotter, John This paper examines the impact of investor preferences on the optimal futures hedging strategy and associated hedging performance. Explicit risk aversion levels are often overlooked in hedging analysis. Applying a mean-variance hedging objective, the optimal futures hedging ratio is determined for a range of investor preferences on risk aversion, hedging horizon and expected returns. Wavelet analysis is applied to illustrate how investor time horizon shapes hedging strategy. Empirical results reveal substantial variation of the optimal hedge ratio for distinct investor preferences and are supportive of the hedging policies of real firms. Hedging performance is then shown to be strongly dependent on underlying preferences. In particular, investors with high levels of risk aversion and a short horizon reduce the risk of the hedge portfolio but achieve inferior utility in comparison to those with low risk aversion. Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3914 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3889 Voluntary Disclosure of Profit Forecasts: Factors Influencing Information Disclosed during UK Takeover Bids Brennan, Niamh; Gray, S. J. Thu, 01 Jan 1998 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3889 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3887 Direct democracy in Italy Erne, Roland Thu, 01 Jan 2004 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3887 2004-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3886 The Wages of Fear Erne, Roland; Fanning, Bryan Wed, 01 Apr 2009 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3886 2009-04-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3868 Downside Risk and the Energy Hedger’s Horizon Conlon, Thomas; Cotter, John In this paper, we explore the impact of investor time-horizon on an optimal downside hedged energy portfolio. Previous studies have shown that minimum-variance hedging effectiveness improves for longer horizons using variance as the performance metric. This paper investigates whether this result holds for different hedging objectives and effectiveness measures. A wavelet transform is applied to calculate the optimal heating oil hedge ratio using a variety of downside objective functions at different time-horizons. We demonstrate decreased hedging effectiveness for increased levels of uncertainty at higher confidence intervals. Moreover, for each of the different hedging objectives and effectiveness measures studied, we also demonstrate increasing hedging effectiveness at longer horizons. While small differences in effectiveness are found across the different hedging objectives, time horizon effects are found to dominate confirming the importance of considering the hedgers horizon. The findings suggest that while downside risk measures are useful in the computation of an optimal hedge ratio that accounts for unwanted negative returns, hedging horizon and confidence intervals should also be given careful consideration by the energy hedger. Wed, 01 Aug 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3868 2012-08-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3855 Editor's Introduction. Corporate Governance and Financial Reporting Brennan, Niamh Tue, 01 Jan 2008 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3855 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3845 Obligatorisches Referendum, Plebiszit und Volksbegehren - drei Typen direkter Demokratie im europäischen Vergleich Erne, Roland In Europa finden immer mehr Volksentscheide statt. Diese Entwicklung wird im ersten Kapitel dieses Beitrages dokumentiert. Anschließend werden die europäischen Erfahrungen mit direkter Demokratie klassifiziert, verglichen und bewertet. Zum Schluss werden die Argumente diskutiert, die gemeinhin von Skeptikern und Gegnern der Stärkung direktdemokratischer Bürgerrechte vorgebracht werden. Dabei sollen unmittelbare und mittelbare Demokratie nicht gegeneinander ausgespielt werden (Rüther 1996). Vielmehr geht es in diesem Beitrag darum, die unterschiedlichen europäischen Erfahrungen mit Volksentscheiden für die deutsche Debatte über die Einführung direktdemokratischer Verfahren auf Bundesebene zu erschließen. Tue, 01 Jan 2002 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3845 2002-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3844 Book Review - Gerhard Bosch, Claudia Weinkopf, Georg Worthmann: Die Fragilität des Tarifsystems. Einhaltung von Entgeltstandards und Mindestlöhnen am Beispiel des Bauhauptgewerbes Imboden, Natalie; Erne, Roland Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3844 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3843 A contentious consensus: The establishment of the National Minimum Wage in Ireland Erne, Roland Fri, 01 Dec 2006 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3843 2006-12-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3837 Mind the gap : national and local partnership in the Irish public sector Doherty, Michael; Erne, Roland This article uses case study data from a major Irish city council to investigate and explain public sector worker attitudes towards social partnership at local and national level. It is argued that the more sceptical attitudes to workplace partnership reflect structural differences between local and national arrangements, which have enabled public sector employers to use 'social partnership' as a constraint in the implementation process of a pre-determined public sector reform agenda. Wed, 01 Sep 2010 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3837 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3833 European Unions after the Crisis Erne, Roland The economic and financial crisis has discredited the idea of a self-regulating market.Yet, it remains to be seen what measures society will be taking to protect itself against future fallouts of global markets. There is a growing consensus that the economy needs to be governed by tighter regulations. But this does not necessarily mean that the economy will be subordinated to democratic politics. Nevertheless, the paper concludes that any fatalism about the prospects of a democratic counter-movement against the marketisation of society is misplaced. Without doubt, the first reactions to the crisis -namely the huge bailouts for private banks and the subsequent cutbacks in public services - do not augur well for the future of labour and egalitarian democracy.Conversely, the more socio-economic decisions are taken by tangible political and corporate elites rather than abstract market forces, the more difficult it is to mystify underlying business interests. The more visible business interests become, however, the easier it will be for social movements and trade unions to mobilise discontent and to politicise the economy. Sun, 01 May 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3833 2011-05-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3786 Alternative Perspectives on Independence of Directors Brennan, Niamh; McDermott, Michael This paper examines the issue of independence of boards of directors and non-executive directors of companies listed on the Irish Stock Exchange. Based on information published in annual reports, the study found that most Irish listed companies were complying with the Combined Code’s recommendations for a balanced board structure, albeit with only 60 per cent having majority-independent boards. The study found a lack of consistency in interpreting the definition of “independence”, a lack of disclosure of information and, by applying criteria generally regarded as prerequisite to independence of non-executive directors, certain situations which imposed upon their independence. Thu, 01 Jul 2004 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3786 2004-07-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3754 Genetic Programming for the Induction of Seasonal Forecasts: A Study on Weather-derivatives Agapitos, Alexandros; O'Neill, Michael; Brabazon, Anthony The last ten years has seen the introduction and rapid growth of a market in weather derivatives, financial instruments whose payoffs are determined by the outcome of an underlying weather metric. These instruments allow organisations to protect themselves against the commercial risks posed by weather fluctuations and also provide investment opportunities for financial traders. The size of the market for weather derivatives is substantial, with a survey suggesting that the market size exceeded $45.2 Billion in 2005/2006 with most contracts being written on temperature-based metrics. A key problem faced by buyers and sellers of weather derivatives is the determination of an appropriate pricing model (and resulting price) for the financial instrument. A critical input into the pricing model is an accurate forecast of the underlying weather metric. In this study we induce seasonal forecasting temperature models by means of a Machine Learning algorithm. Genetic Programming (GP) is applied to learn an accurate, localised, long-term forecast of a temperature profile as part of the broader process of determining appropriate pricing model for weather-derivatives. Two different approaches for GP-based time-series modelling are adopted. The first is based on a simple system identification approach whereby the temporal index of the time-series is used as the sole regressor of the evolved model. The second is based on iterated single-step prediction that resembles autoregressive and moving average models in statistical time-series modelling. The major issue of effective model generalisation is tackled though the use of an ensemble learning technique that allows a family of forecasting models to be evolved using different training sets, so that predictions are formed by averaging the diverse model outputs. Empirical results suggest that GP is able to successfully induce seasonal forecasting models, and that search-based autoregressive models compose a more stable unit of evolution in terms of generalisation performance for the three datasets considered. In addition, the use of ensemble learning of 5-model predictors enhanced the generalisation ability of the system as opposed to single-model prediction systems. On a more general note, there is an increasing recognition of the utility of evolutionary methodologies for the modelling of meteorological, climatic and ecological phenomena, and this work also contributes to this literature. Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3754 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3751 An Agent-based Modeling Approach to Study Price Impact Cui, Wei; Brabazon, Anthony Price impact models are important for devising trade execution strategies. However, a proper characterization of price impacts is still lacking. This study models the price impact using an agent-based modeling approach. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether agent intelligence is a necessary condition when seeking to construct realistic price impact with an artificial market simulation. We build a zero- intelligence based artificial limit order market model. Our model distinguishes limit orders according to their order aggressiveness and takes into account some observed facts including log-normal distributed order sizes and power-law distributed limit order placements. The model is calibrated using trades and orders data from the London Stock Exchange. The results indicate that agent intelligence is needed when simulating an artificial market where replicating price impact is a concern. 2012 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics, New York, USA, 29-30 March 2012 Thu, 29 Mar 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3751 2012-03-29T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3734 Extreme global equity market risk Cotter, John; Dowd, Kevin Extreme asset price movements appear to be more pronounced over time and have major consequences for an economy’s financial stability and monetary policies. This article investigates the extreme behaviour of equity market returns and quantifies the probabilities of these losses. Taking 14 major equity markets, the study illustrates similarities and divergences in the tail returns from around the world. To do so, it applies extreme value theory to equity indexes representing American, Asian and European markets. The article finds that all markets tail realisations are adequately modelled with the fat-tailed Fréchet distribution. Furthermore, tail realisations associated with the downside of a distribution are greater than those associated with the upside, and extreme returns for Asian markets are usually larger than their European and American counterparts. Tue, 01 Nov 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3734 2011-11-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3617 Accounting expertise in litigation and dispute resolution Brennan, Niamh This paper looks at the role of experts from both a United Kingdom and North America perspective. The paper starts by pointing out the important role of expert evidence in assisting the tier of fact. The distinction between accountants as fact witnesses and as expert witnesses is identified. The expert’s primary obligation is to the court not the hiring party. Expert evidence is not a substitute for the exercise of the court’s own judgement. The qualities of expert evidence are discussed, as are the significance of the necessary qualities of such expert evidence. A lack of these qualities increases the likelihood that civil liability will be imposed on expert witnesses. The paper outlines the steps to be taken in engaging expert accountants. Sat, 01 Jan 2005 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3617 2005-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3573 Learning environment models in car racing using stateful genetic programming Agapitos, Alexandros; O'Neill, Michael; Brabazon, Anthony; Theodoridis, Theodoros For computational intelligence to be useful in creating game agent AI we need to focus on methods that allow the creation and maintenance of models for the environment, which the artificial agents inhabit. Maintaining a model allows an agent to plan its actions more effectively by combining immediate sensory information along with a memories that have been acquired while operating in that environment. To this end, we propose a way to build environment models for non-player characters in car racing games using stateful Genetic Programming. A method is presented, where general purpose 2-dimensional data-structures are used to build a model of the racing track. Results demonstrate that model-building behaviour can be cooperatively coevolved with car controlling behaviour in modular programs that make use of these models in order to navigate successfully around a racing track. Paper presented at the 2011 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG’11), Seoul, South Korea, Aug.31-Sept.3, 2011 Wed, 31 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3573 2011-08-31T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3530 Dynamic trade execution : a grammatical evolution approach Cui, Wei; Brabazon, Anthony; O'Neill, Michael Trade execution is concerned with the actual mechanics of buying or selling the desired amount of a financial instrument. Investors wishing to execute large orders face a tradeoff between market impact and opportunity cost. Trade execution strategies are designed to balance out these costs, thereby minimising total trading cost. Despite the importance of optimising the trade execution process, this is difficult to do in practice due to the dynamic nature of markets and due to our imperfect understanding of them. In this paper, we adopt a novel approach, combining an evolutionary methodology whereby we evolve high-quality trade execution strategies, with an agent-based artificial stock market, wherein the evolved strategies are tested. The evolved strategies are found to outperform a series of benchmark strategies and several avenues are suggested for future work. Tue, 01 Feb 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3530 2011-02-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3520 Reactiveness and navigation in computer games : different needs, different approaches Perez, Diego; Nicolau, Miguel; O'Neill, Michael; Brabazon, Anthony This paper presents an approach to the Mario AI Benchmark problem, using the A* algorithm for navigation, and an evolutionary process combining routines for the reactiveness of the resulting bot. The Grammatical Evolution system was used to evolve Behaviour Trees, combining both types of routines, while the highly dynamic nature of the environment required specific approaches to deal with over-fitting issues. The results obtained highlight the need for specific algorithms for the different aspects of controlling a bot in a game environment, while Behaviour Trees provided the perfect representation to combine all those algorithms. Paper presented at the 2011 IEEE Conference on Computational Intelligence and Games (CIG’11), Seoul, South Korea, August 31st-September 3rd 2011 Wed, 31 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3520 2011-08-31T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3467 Integration and contagion in US housing markets Cotter, John; Gabriel, Stuart A.; Roll, Richard This paper explores integration and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. The analysis applies Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price repeat sales indexes from 384 metropolitan areas to estimate a multi-factor model of U.S. housing market integration. It then identifies statistical jumps in metropolitan house price returns as well as MSA contemporaneous and lagged jump correlations. Finally, the paper evaluates contagion in housing markets via parametric assessment of MSA house price spatial dynamics. A R-squared measure reveals an upward trend in MSA housing market integration over the 2000s to approximately .83 in 2010. Among California MSAs, the trend was especially pronounced, as average integration increased from about .55 in 1997 to close to .95 in 2008! The 2000s bubble period similarly was characterized by elevated incidence of statistical jumps in housing returns. Again, jump incidence and MSA jump correlations were especially high in California. Analysis of contagion among California markets indicates that house price returns in San Francisco often led those of surrounding communities; in contrast, southern California MSA house price returns appeared to move largely in lock step. The high levels of housing market integration evidenced in the analysis suggest limited investor opportunity to diversify away MSA-specific housing risk. Further, results suggest that macro and policy shocks propagate through a large number of MSA housing markets. Research findings are relevant to all market participants, including institutional investors in MBS as well as those who regulate housing, the housing GSEs, mortgage lenders, and related financial institutions. Sat, 01 Jan 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3467 2011-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3464 Re-evaluating hedging performance for asymmetry : the case of crude oil Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim We examine whether the hedging effectiveness of crude oil futures is affected by asymmetry in the return distribution by applying tail specific metrics to compare the hedging effectiveness of both short and long hedgers. The hedging effectiveness metrics we use are based on Lower Partial Moments (LPM), Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). Comparisons are applied to a number of hedging strategies including OLS, and both Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH models. We find that OLS provides consistently better performance across different measures of hedging effectiveness as compared with GARCH models, irrespective of the characteristics of the underlying distribution. Sun, 01 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3464 2012-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3463 A utility based approach to energy hedging Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim A key issue in the estimation of energy hedges is the hedgers’ attitude towards risk which is encapsulated in the form of the hedgers’ utility function. However, the literature typically uses only one form of utility function such as the quadratic when estimating hedges. This paper addresses this issue by estimating and applying energy market based risk aversion to commonly applied utility functions including log, exponential and quadratic, and we incorporate these in our hedging frameworks. We find significant differences in the optimal hedge strategies based on the utility function chosen. Tue, 01 May 2012 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3463 2012-05-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3188 An empirical analysis of dynamic multiscale hedging using wavelet decomposition Conlon, Thomas; Cotter, John This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of a dynamic moving window OLS hedging model, formed using wavelet decomposed time-series. The wavelet transform is applied to calculate the appropriate dynamic minimum-variance hedge ratio for various hedging horizons for a number of assets. The effectiveness of the dynamic multiscale hedging strategy is then tested, both in-and out-of-sample, using standard variance reduction and expanded to include a downside risk metric, the time horizon dependent Value-at-Risk. Measured using variance reduction, the effectiveness converges to one at longer scales, while a measure of VaR reduction indicates a portion of residual risk remains at all scales. Analysis of the hedge portfolio distributions indicate that this unhedged tail risk is related to excess portfolio kurtosis found at all scales. Mon, 07 Mar 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3188 2011-03-07T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3059 A preliminary investigation of overfitting in evolutionary driven model induction : implications for financial modelling Tuite, Cliodhna; Agapitos, Alexandros; O'Neill, MIchael; Brabazon, Anthony This paper investigates the effects of early stopping as a method to counteract overfitting in evolutionary data modelling using Genetic Programming. Early stopping has been proposed as a method to avoid model overtraining, which has been shown to lead to a significant degradation of out-of-sample performance. If we assume some sort of performance metric maximisation, the most widely used early training stopping criterion is the moment within the learning process that an unbiased estimate of the performance of the model begins to decrease after a strictly monotonic increase through the earlier learning iterations. We are conducting an initial investigation on the effects of early stopping in the performance of Genetic Programming in symbolic regression and financial modelling. Empirical results suggest that early stopping using the above criterion increases the extrapolation abilities of symbolic regression models, but is by no means the optimal training-stopping criterion in the case of a real-world financial dataset. EvoStar 2011, 27-29 April, 2011, Torino Italy Fri, 01 Apr 2011 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3059 2011-04-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2976 Corporate reporting on the internet by Irish companies Brennan, Niamh; Hourigan, Denis The use of the Internet for financial reporting purposes by 109 Irish companies in 1998 is examined. The relationship between Internet disclosure and size, leverage, demand for corporate information and industry is analysed. Results show that 35 (37 per cent) listed and 15 (100 per cent) semi-state companies had a Web site. Larger companies, with larger annual report print runs, were significantly more likely to have a Web site. There was no association between presence of an Internet site and leverage or number of shareholders. Companies in the services and financial industries were significantly more likely to have a Web site. Sat, 01 Jan 2000 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2976 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2969 A comparative analysis of required financial disclosures in US, UK and international accounting standards Brennan, Niamh; Marston, Claire This paper explores the extent to which there are significant differences in disclosure requirements under US, UK, international accounting standards. Previous research into international disclosure diversity has focused on an analysis of disclosure practices in different countries rather than on disclosures required by regulations in different countries. Financial disclosures required by UK professional regulations and by International Accounting Standards (IASs) are summarised and classified using Barth and Murphy’s (1994) categorisation by purpose of disclosure and by category and subject. US, UK and international required disclosures are compared and areas of divergence are highlighted. Although differences in required disclosures between the three regulatory regimes are evident from the analysis, these differences are not significant in the multivariate models tested. A notable difference is greater required disclosures in the UK/IASs concerning entity structures (business combinations, consolidations, segmental reporting etc.).A greater proportion of US required disclosures address risks and potentials and assess returns. A much greater proportion of UK/IASs disclosures related to items recognised in accounts. The Financial Accounting Standards Board is currently examining the issue of disclosure effectiveness in the US. By highlighting areas of diversity in required disclosures in the US, UK and internationally this study will add insights to this discussion of disclosure effectiveness. Fri, 01 Jan 1999 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2969 1999-01-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2965 Rhetoric and argument in financial reporting : disclosures in profit forecasts and takeover documents Brennan, Niamh; Gray, S. J. Thu, 01 Jun 2000 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2965 2000-06-01T00:00:00Z