http://hdl.handle.net/10197/6 2013-05-23T13:19:22Z 2013-05-23T13:19:22Z Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3048 2011-07-25T16:11:33Z 1996-01-01T00:00:00Z

Some economic implications of the ageing Irish population Walsh, Brendan M.

1996-01-01T00:00:00Z Neary, J. Peter http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3047 2011-07-25T16:07:22Z 1996-01-18T00:00:00Z

Theoretical foundations of the "Geary method" for international comparisons of purchasing power and real incomes Neary, J. Peter This paper provides a centenary review of the method of calculating real incomes and purchasing power parities proposed by Roy Geary. This method is the most widely used in major international comparisons, but it is often criticised for its lack of theoretical foundations. I discuss the properties of the method and its competitors in the light of both practical and theoretical considerations. I also propose a new method of computing "true" or, as I call them, "Geary-Konus" exchange rates and world prices and I argue that the Geary method provides the best available approximation to the true values.

1996-01-18T00:00:00Z Neary, J. Peter Gleeson, Bríd http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3046 2011-07-25T15:19:44Z 1997-06-24T00:00:00Z

Comparing the wealth of nations : reference prices and multilateral real income indexes Neary, J. Peter; Gleeson, Bríd This paper considers the problem of comparing real incomes across countries. The available methods are reviewed and their performance is compared using the raw data underlying the Penn World Table. The results throw light on the relative merits of different indexes and on the empirical importance of the "Gerschenkron effect": the downward bias in a country's measured real income when its own prices are used as weights. They also demonstrate the feasibility of using empirical demand parameters to estimate the GAIA ("Geary-Allen International Accounts") System.

1997-06-24T00:00:00Z Neary, J. Peter O'Sullivan, Paul http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3045 2011-07-25T15:21:07Z 1998-05-11T00:00:00Z

Beat 'em or join 'em? : export subsidies versus international research joint ventures in oligopolistic markets Neary, J. Peter; O'Sullivan, Paul This paper compares adversarial with cooperative industrial and trade policies in a dynamic oligopoly game in which a home and foreign firm compete in R&D and output and, because of spillovers, each firm benefits from the other's R&D. When the government can commit to an export subsidy, such a policy raises welfare relative to cooperation, except when R&D is highly effective and spillovers are near-complete. Without commitment, however, subsidisation may yield welfare levels much lower than cooperation and lower even than free trade, though qualifications to the dangers from no commitment are noted.

1998-05-11T00:00:00Z Clinch, J. Peter Murphy, Anthony http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3044 2011-07-25T14:18:23Z 1998-08-01T00:00:00Z

Modelling winners and losers in contingent valuation of public goods : appropriate welfare measures and econometric analysis. Clinch, J. Peter; Murphy, Anthony Contingent Valuation is now the most widely used method for valuing non-marketed goods in cost benefit analysis. Yet, despite the fact that many externalities manifest themselves as costs to some and benefits to others, most studies restrict willingness to pay (WTP) to being non-negative. This paper explores appropriate welfare measures for assessing losses and gains and demonstrates how these can be elicited explicitly. Statistical / econometric methods are presented for modelling such responses. Median WTP is estimated non-parametrically. Grouped regression / Tobit and grouped regression / hurdle models are used to identify the determinants of WTP and to estimate mean WTP.

1998-08-01T00:00:00Z Neary, J. Peter Leahy, Dermot http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3043 2011-07-25T14:12:12Z 1998-07-21T00:00:00Z

Strategic trade and industrial policy towards dynamic oligopolies Neary, J. Peter; Leahy, Dermot We characterize optimal trade and industrial policy in dynamic oligopolistic markets. If governments can commit to future policies, optimal first-period intervention should diverge from the profit-shifting benchmark to an extent which exactly offsets the strategic behaviour implied by Fudenberg and Tirole's "fat cats and top dogs" taxonomy of business strategies. Without government commitment, there is an additional basis for intervention, whose sign depends on the stategic substitutability between future policy and current actions. We consider a variety of applications (to R&D spillovers, consumer switching costs, etc.) and extensions to second-best, revenue-constrained and entry-promotion policies.

1998-07-21T00:00:00Z Neary, J. Peter http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3042 2011-07-25T14:11:16Z 1999-11-10T00:00:00Z

R&D in developing countries : what should governments do? Neary, J. Peter I consider the implications of recent research for R&D policy in developing countries. Typical new growth models, which assume free entry and no strategic behaviour by R&D producers, are less appropriate for policy guidance than strategic oligopoly models. But the latter have ambiguous implications for targeted R&D subsidies, and caution against the anti-competitive effects of research joint ventures. A better policy is to raise the economy-wide level of research expertise. This avoids the need for governments to pick winners, is less prone to capture, and dilutes the strategic disincentive to undertake R&D with unappropriable spillovers.

1999-11-10T00:00:00Z Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3041 2011-07-25T14:10:34Z 2000-01-01T00:00:00Z

Two islands – two monies : the effect of breaking the Sterling link on Anglo-Irish trade Walsh, Brendan M. This paper studies the effect on Anglo-Irish trade of breaking the link between the Irish pound and sterling in 1979. A gravity model is used to explore this issue. No evidence is found of a structural break following the dismantling of the currency union. Nor did the resultant exchange rate volatility have a significant adverse effect on trade. These results do not support the belief that currency unions result in increased trade flows, either directly or by reducing exchange rate volatility.

2000-01-01T00:00:00Z Murphy, Anthony Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2986 2011-06-14T16:17:42Z 1997-06-01T00:00:00Z

Unemployment, non-participation and labour market slack among Irish Males Murphy, Anthony; Walsh, Brendan M.

1997-06-01T00:00:00Z Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2985 2011-06-14T16:11:24Z 1999-03-01T00:00:00Z

Labour market adjustment in the Irish regions Walsh, Brendan M. The issue of how regional labour markets adjust to shocks has received increased attention in the context of EMU, yet relatively little is known about this aspect of the Irish economy. Using the methodology developed by Blanchard and Katz (1992) this paper explores the evolution of employment, unemployment, labour force participation rates and wage rates in the regions of the Republic. The extent to which regional employment growth is self-reinforcing, the degree of hysteresis in regional unemployment and the absence of convergence in regional wage rates is discussed. The response of regions to shocks in employment is explored by estimating a log linear system in region-specific employment growth, unemployment and labour force participation rates. The implications of the findings for Irish regional development are discussed.

1999-03-01T00:00:00Z Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2984 2011-06-14T15:56:42Z 1996-03-01T00:00:00Z

The real exchange rate, fiscal policy and the current account : interpreting recent Irish experience Walsh, Brendan M. This paper examines the Irish macroeconomic adjustment over the period since 1979 with particular reference to the interaction of the real exchange rate with the balance between national saving and investment. The transition from a large current account deficit to an exceptional surplus and the reversal of the growth in external indebtedness are discussed. The fact that a major reduction in absorption was achieved without a real exchange rate depreciation is attributed to a simultaneous reduction in investment spending relative to GDP and an improvement in the relative efficiency of the industrial exporting sectors. These factors are likely to continue to exert upward pressure on the Irish real exchange rate.

1996-03-01T00:00:00Z Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2983 2011-06-14T15:49:50Z 1999-10-01T00:00:00Z

Urbanization and the regional distribution of population in post-Famine Ireland Walsh, Brendan M.

1999-10-01T00:00:00Z Leddin, Anthony J. Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2982 2011-07-25T15:24:26Z 1997-02-15T00:00:00Z

Economic stabilisation, recovery, and growth : Ireland 1979-1996 Leddin, Anthony J.; Walsh, Brendan M.

1997-02-15T00:00:00Z Neary, J. Peter http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2981 2011-06-14T15:39:05Z 1997-11-11T00:00:00Z

The EU stability pact and the case for European Monetary Union Neary, J. Peter

1997-11-11T00:00:00Z Walsh, Brendan M. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2980 2012-12-20T14:10:37Z 1998-01-01T00:00:00Z

Unemployment persistence in a small open labour market : the Irish case Walsh, Brendan M. This paper reviews previous research on Irish unemployment. It examines the reasons for the persistence of high unemployment and the relevance of the concept of a time-varying rate of "equilibrium" unemployment in a small and open labour market. The links between Irish and British unemployment, and the effects of economic growth on Irish unemployment, are explored. The difficulty of establishing links between Irish labour market conditions and wage price inflation is documented. The paper concludes with a discussion of contribution of centralised wage bargaining to the recent impressive performance of the Irish labour market.

1998-01-01T00:00:00Z Neary, J. Peter http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2979 2012-12-20T14:10:10Z 1997-09-24T00:00:00Z

Pitfalls in the theory of international trade policy : concertina reform of tariffs, and subsidies to high-technology industries Neary, J. Peter This paper explores the links between international trade theory and the practice of trade and industrial policy in open economies, with special attention to three areas where theoretical lessons have been misunderstood in policy debates. I argue that the "concertina rule" for tariff reform justifies reductions in high tariffs but not moves towards uniformity and particularly not increases in low tariffs. I show that the basic principles of tariff reform are the same in unilateral, multilateral and customs union contexts. Finally, I suggest that the theory of strategic trade policy does not justify subsidies to high-technology industries.

1997-09-24T00:00:00Z Ó Gráda, Cormac http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2672 2010-12-20T15:56:39Z 2010-11-01T00:00:00Z

The last major Irish bank failure : lessons for today? Ó Gráda, Cormac

2010-11-01T00:00:00Z Fernihough, Alan http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2671 2010-12-20T15:52:01Z 2010-11-01T00:00:00Z

Malthusian dynamics in a diverging Europe : Northern Italy 1650-1881 Fernihough, Alan Recent empirical research has questioned the validity of using Malthusian theory in pre-industrial England. Using real wage and vital rate data for the years 1650-1881, I provide empirical estimates for a different region - Northern Italy. The empirical methodology is theoretically underpinned by a simple Malthusian model, in which population, real wages and vital rates are determined endogenously. My findings strongly support the existence of a `Malthusian' economy where population growth depressed living standards, which in turn influenced vital rates. In addition, I find no evidence of Boserupian effects as increases in population failed to spur sustained technological growth.

2010-11-01T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2670 2010-12-20T15:19:43Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Height and well-being amongst older Europeans Denny, Kevin This paper uses a cross‐country representative sample of Europeans over the age of 50 to analyse whether individuals’ height is associated with higher or lower levels of well‐being. Two outcomes are used: a measure of depression symptoms reported by individuals and a categorical measure of life satisfaction. It is shown that there is a concave relationship between height and symptoms of depression. These results are sensitive to the inclusion of several sets of controls reflecting demographics, human capital and health status. While parsimonious models suggest that height is protective against depression, the addition of controls, particularly related to health, suggests the reverse effect: tall people are predicted to have slightly more symptoms of depression. Height has no significant association with life satisfaction in models with controls for health and human capital.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Walsh, Brendan M. Walsh, Dermot http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2669 2010-12-20T15:09:20Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Suicide in Ireland : the influence of alcohol and unemployment Walsh, Brendan M.; Walsh, Dermot In this paper we model the behaviour of the Irish suicide rate over the period 1968‐2009 using the unemployment rate and the level of alcohol consumption as explanatory variables. It is found that these variables have significant positive effects on suicide mortality in several demographic groups. Alcohol consumption is a significant influence on the male suicide rate up to age 64. Its influence on the female suicide rate is not as well‐established, although there is evidence that it is important in the 15‐24 and 25‐34 age groups. The unemployment rate is also a significant influence on the male suicide rate in the younger age groups. The behaviour of suicide rates among males aged 55 and over and females aged 25 and over is largely unaccounted for by our model. These broad conclusions hold when account is taken of a structural break in the 1980s, with the response to unemployment being greater in the earlier period and that to alcohol greater in the later period. The findings suggest that higher alcohol consumption played a major role in the increase in suicide mortality among young Irish males between the late 1960s and the end of the century. In the early twenty first century a combination of falling alcohol consumption and low unemployment led to a marked reduction in suicide rates, although there is some evidence that the suicide rate is being increasingly under‐reported in recent years. The recent rise in the suicide rate may be attributed to the sharp increase in unemployment, especially among males, but it has been moderated by the continuing fall in alcohol consumption. Some policy implications of the findings are discussed.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Pastine, Ivan Pastine, Tuvana http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2668 2010-12-20T15:00:55Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Political campaign spending limits Pastine, Ivan; Pastine, Tuvana Political campaign spending ceilings are purported to limit the incumbent's ability to exploit his fundraising advantage. If the challenger does not have superior campaign effectiveness, in contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that the incumbent always benefits from a limit as long as he has an initial voter disposition advantage, however small and regardless of the candidates’ relative fundraising ability. If the challenger has higher campaign spending effectiveness, the effect of limits may be non-monotonic. If the incumbent enjoys a mild initial voter disposition advantage, a moderate limit benefits the challenger. Further restricting the limit favours the incumbent. Stricter limits may lead to the unintended consequence of increased expected spending.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier Keane, Claire http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2667 2010-12-20T14:53:45Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Tax-benefit revealed redistributive preferences over time : Ireland 1987-2005 Bargain, Olivier; Keane, Claire By inverting Saez (2002)'s model of optimal income taxation, we characterize the redistributive preferences of the Irish government between 1987 and 2005. The (marginal) social welfare function revealed by this approach is consistently comparable over time and show great stability despite profound changes in market incomes and important fiscal reforms over the period. Results are robust to numerous checks regarding data, income concepts and elasticities. A comparison with the UK shows marked differences reflecting the narrow political spectrum in Ireland compared to radical changes in British politics over the past 30 years. Some "anomalies" in the revealed social welfare function suggests introducing transfers to the working poor.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2666 2010-12-20T14:39:49Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Back to the future - decomposition analysis of distributive policies using behavioural simulations Bargain, Olivier For policy makers and analysts, it is important to isolate the redistributive impact of tax-benefit policy changes from changes in the environment in which policies operate. When actual reforms are motivated by work incentives, it is also crucial to evaluate behavioural responses and the distributional consequences thereof. For that purpose, we embed counterfactual simulations in a formal framework based on the Shapley value decomposition and quantify the relative roles of (i) tax-benefit policy changes (direct policy effect), (ii) labour supply responses to the policy reforms (in- direct effect) and (iii) all other factors affecting income distribution over time. An application to the UK shows that the redistributive reforms of the 1998-2001 period have offset the increase in inequality that would have occurred otherwise. They also contribute to a strong decline in child poverty and poverty amongst single parent households. In the latter group, a third of the headcount poverty reduction (and half of the reduction in the depth of poverty) is on account of the very large incentive effect of policy changes.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier Keane, Claire http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2665 2010-12-20T14:26:47Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Female labor supply and divorce : new evidence from Ireland Bargain, Olivier; Keane, Claire If participation in the labor market helps to secure women's outside options in the case of divorce/separation, an increase in the perceived risk of marital dissolution may accelerate the increase in female labor supply. This simple prediction has been tested in the literature using time and/or spatial variation in divorce legislation (e.g., across US states), leading to mixed results. In this paper, we suggest testing this hypothesis by exploiting a more radical policy change, i.e., the legalization of divorce. In Ireland, the right to divorce was introduced in 1996, followed by an acceleration of marriage breakdown rates. We use this fundamental change in the Irish society as a natural experiment. We follow a difference-in-difference approach, using families for whom the dissolution risk is small as a control group. Our results suggest that the legalization of divorce contributed to a significant increase in female labor supply, mostly at the extensive margin. Results are not driven by selection and are robust to several specification checks, including the introduction of household fixed effects and an improved match between control and treatment groups using propensity score reweighting.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier Immervoll, Herwig Peichl, Andreas Siegloch, Sebastian http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2664 2011-01-12T12:00:57Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Distributional consequences of labor demand adjustments to a downturn : a model-based approach with application to Germany 2008-09 Bargain, Olivier; Immervoll, Herwig; Peichl, Andreas; Siegloch, Sebastian Macro-level changes can have substantial effects on the distribution of resources at the household level. While it is possible to speculate about which groups are likely to be hardest-hit, detailed distributional studies are still largely backward-looking. This paper suggests a straightforward approach to gauge the distributional and fiscal implications of large output changes at an early stage. We illustrate the method with an evaluation of the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis in Germany. We take as a starting point a very detailed administrative matched employer-employee dataset to estimate labor demand and predict the effects of output shocks at a disaggregated level. The predicted employment effects are then transposed to household-level microdata, in order to analyze the incidence of rising unemployment and reduced working hours on poverty and inequality. We focus on two alternative scenarios of the labor demand adjustment process, one based on reductions in hours (intensive margin) and close to the German experience, and the other assuming extensive margin adjustments that take place through layoffs (close to the US situation). Our results suggest that the distributional and fiscal consequences are less severe when labor demand reacts along the intensive margin.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Madden, David (David Patrick) http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2662 2010-12-14T17:23:15Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

The socioeconomic gradient of obesity in Ireland Madden, David (David Patrick) Using the nationally representative Slan dataset we calculate concentration indices for the incidence of obesity for men and women. We finder higher concentration indices for women than for men, but we also find that concentration indices fell between 2002 and 2007. However this appears to be owing to an increased incidence of obesity amongst better off people rather than decreased obesity amongst the less well-off. A decomposition of the concentration indices suggest that the greatest contribution to the gradient comes from the combination of lower rates of obesity amongst those with 3rd level education and their higher income.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Strobl, Eric Walsh, Frank http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2661 2010-12-14T17:11:53Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

The minimum wage and hours per worker Strobl, Eric; Walsh, Frank In a competitive model we ease the assumption that efficiency units of labour are the product of hours and workers. We show that a minimum wage may either increase or decrease hours per worker and the change will have the opposite sign to the slope of the equilibrium hours hourly wage locus. Similarly, total hours worked may rise or fall. We illustrate the results throughout with a Cobb-Douglas example.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Whelan, Karl http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2660 2010-12-14T17:00:02Z 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z

The future for Eurozone financial stability policy Whelan, Karl The past few months have exposed serious problems in relation to Europe’s ability to cope with financial stress. Placing the new Financial Stability funds on a permanent basis, in the form of a new European Monetary Fund will be required if Europe is to deal effectively with the serious debt problems of some Eurozone countries. However, this fund should exist to manage sovereign defaults in an orderly manner, not to prevent them altogether. Bank supervisors also need to publish regular stress tests, change their regulations on the risk weighting of sovereign debt and put new resolution procedures in place. Together, these reforms will allow Europe to deal with future sovereign debt problems without provoking a crisis.

2010-09-01T00:00:00Z Kelly, Morgan Ó Gráda, Cormac http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2659 2010-12-14T16:32:54Z 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z

Living standards and mortality since the Middle Ages Kelly, Morgan; Ó Gráda, Cormac Existing studies find little connection between living standards and mortality in England, but go back only to the sixteenth century. Using new data on inheritances, we extend estimates of mortality back to the mid-thirteenth century and find, by contrast, that deaths from unfree tenants to the nobility were strongly affected by harvests. Looking at a large sample of parishes after 1540, we find that the positive check had weakened considerably by 1650 even though real wages were falling, but persisted in London for another century despite its higher wages. In both cases the disappearance of the positive check coincided with the introduction of systematic poor relief, suggesting that government action played a role in breaking the link between harvest failure and mass mortality.

2010-09-01T00:00:00Z Ryan, Martin Delaney, Liam Harmon, Colm http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2658 2010-12-20T14:31:08Z 2010-08-01T00:00:00Z

Micro-level determinants of lecture attendance and additional study-hours Ryan, Martin; Delaney, Liam; Harmon, Colm This paper uses novel measures of individual differences that produce new insights about student inputs into the (higher) education production function. The inputs examined are lecture attendance and additional study-hours. The data were collected through a web-survey that the authors designed. The analysis includes the following measures: willingness to take risks, consideration of future consequences and non-cognitive ability traits. Besides age, gender and year of study, the main determinants of lecture attendance and additional study-hours are attitude to risk, future-orientation and conscientiousness. In addition, future-orientation, and in particular conscientiousness, determine lecture attendance to a greater extent than they determine additional study. Finally, we show that family income and financial transfers (from both parents and the state) do not determine any educational input. This study suggests that non-cognitive abilities may be more important than financial constraints in the determination of inputs related to educational production functions.

2010-08-01T00:00:00Z Cole, Matthew T. Davies, Ronald B. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2657 2010-12-14T15:13:37Z 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z

Royale with cheese : the effect of globalization on the variety of goods Cole, Matthew T.; Davies, Ronald B. The key result of the so-called “New Trade Theory” is that countries gain from falling trade costs by an increase in the number of varieties available to consumers. Though the number of varieties in a given country rises, it is also true that global variety decreases from increased competition wherein imported varieties drive out some local varieties. This second result is a major issue for anti-trade activists who criticize the move towards free trade as promoting “homogenization” or “Americanization” of varieties across countries. We present a model of endogenous entry with heterogeneous firms which models this concern in two ways: a portion of a consumer’s income is spent overseas (i.e. tourism) and an existence value (a common tool in environmental economics where simply knowing that a species exists provides utility). Since lowering trade costs induces additional varieties to export and drives out some non-exported varieties, these modifications result in welfare losses not accounted for in the existing literature. Nevertheless, it is only through the existence value that welfare can fall as a result of declining trade barriers. Thus, for these criticisms of globalization to dominate, it must be that this loss in the existence value outweighs the direct benefits from consumption.

2010-07-01T00:00:00Z McCarthy, Colm http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2656 2010-12-14T14:52:26Z 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z

Economic aspects of personal injury compensation in Ireland McCarthy, Colm Victims of events including road accidents, workplace injuries and medical negligence are compensated in the Irish legal system through once-off lump-sum awards. In cases where victims have suffered incapacitating injuries but have extended life expectancy, these awards include provision for loss of earnings and life-long medical care that can run into millions. Where liability is contested, significant litigation costs also arise, but even where liability is admitted, the determination of quantum is complex, requiring evidence about future medical care costs, loss of earnings, life expectancy and the returns to be expected from the investment of the lump sum award. The once-off lump sum system of compensating successful plaintiffs has been criticised over the years from both legal and economic perspectives, and change was recommended in a Law Reform Commission report in 1996. Mr. Justice Nicholas Kearns, President of the High Court, established recently a working group to consider the issues involved and charged it to report by November 2010. Since 1995, courts in the United Kingdom have been free to award periodic payments, as distinct from once-off lump sums, where the parties agree, and since the passage of the 2003 Courts Act, whether or not they agree. It is opportune to consider whether periodic payments should be introduced in Ireland and this paper reviews the principal economic aspects of the issue. The paper also considers whether a move to periodic payments would require changes to the government bond market, specifically the issuance of long-dated index-linked Exchequer debt.

2010-07-01T00:00:00Z Ó Gráda, Cormac http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2655 2010-12-14T14:46:22Z 2010-06-01T00:00:00Z

‘Sufficiency and sufficiency and sufficiency’ : revisiting the Bengal Famine of 1943-44 Ó Gráda, Cormac

2010-06-01T00:00:00Z Ó Gráda, Cormac http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2654 2010-12-14T14:41:09Z 2010-06-01T00:00:00Z

Famines past, famine’s future Ó Gráda, Cormac

2010-06-01T00:00:00Z Cole, Matthew T. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2653 2010-12-14T14:35:42Z 2010-06-01T00:00:00Z

Distorted trade barriers : a comment on “distorted gravity" Cole, Matthew T. Since firm heterogeneity has been introduced into international trade models, the importance of firm entry and exit (the extensive margin) has been highlighted. Thomas Chaney (2008) illustrates how accounting for heterogenous firms (and this extensive margin) alters the standard gravity equation. In particular, it reverses the previously predicted effect the elasticity of substitution has on the elasticity of trade flows. Further, Chaney shows that the elasticity of trade flows with respect to variable trade costs is a constant. As is common, iceberg transport costs are used as the variable trade barrier. However, in many empirical studies, ad valorem tariffs are also used as a form of trade barrier, which as Cole (2010) points out, is not isomorphic to iceberg transport cost in a monopolistically competitive setting. In this comment, I solve the Chaney (2008) model using ad valorem tariffs instead of iceberg transport costs and show the elasticity of trade flows with respect to tariffs is not constant, but depends on the elasticity of substitution.

2010-06-01T00:00:00Z Davies, Ronald B. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2652 2010-12-14T14:36:25Z 2010-05-01T00:00:00Z

The silver lining of red tape Davies, Ronald B. An increasing number of international agreements require “nondiscrimination” from their participants, i.e. the government of one country cannot treat foreign firms differently from domestic firms. This is at odds with a government’s desire to benefit its own citizens rather than foreign citizens. I show that the use of red tape – a wasteful application process – can achieve de-facto discrimination. Key to this result is firm heterogeneity since, although the red tape cost is constant across firms, only those sufficiently benefiting from an incentive program will find it worth the cost of applying. If the benefits of targeting subsidies outweigh the burden of red tape on domestic firms, red tape will be used.

2010-05-01T00:00:00Z Black, Sandra E. Devereux, Paul J. Salvanes, Kjell G. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2651 2011-01-05T16:23:55Z 2010-05-01T00:00:00Z

Under pressure? The effect of peers on outcomes of young adults Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul J.; Salvanes, Kjell G. A variety of public campaigns, including the “Just Say No” campaign of the 1980s and 1990s that encouraged teenagers to “Just Say No to Drugs”, are based on the premise that teenagers are very susceptible to peer influences. Despite this, very little is known about the effect of school peers on the long-run outcomes of teenagers. This is primarily due to two factors: the absence of information on peers merged with long-run outcomes of individuals and, equally important, the difficulty of separately identifying the role of peers. This paper uses data on the population of Norway and idiosyncratic variation in cohort composition within schools to examine the role of peer composition in 9th grade on longer-run outcomes such as IQ scores at age 18, teenage childbearing, post-compulsory schooling educational track, adult labor market status, and earnings. We find that outcomes are influenced by the proportion of females in the grade, and these effects differ for men and women. Other peer variables (average age, average mother’s education) have little impact on the outcomes of teenagers.

2010-05-01T00:00:00Z Madden, David (David Patrick) http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2650 2010-12-10T16:46:26Z 2010-05-01T00:00:00Z

The impact of an economic boom on the level and distribution of well-being : Ireland, 1994-2001 Madden, David (David Patrick) The impact of increased affluence on life satisfaction is a matter of some controversy. This paper examines the impact of the recent economic boom in Ireland upon the level and distribution of various domains of well-being. There is evidence of a substantial increase in life satisfaction in the domain of finance and of an improvement in mental wellbeing. There is a reduction in inequality and polarisation for virtually all domains of life satisfaction. A social welfare function which is increasing and concave in individual well-being would show an improvement in social welfare over the period.

2010-05-01T00:00:00Z Kelly, Morgan Ó Gráda, Cormac http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2649 2010-12-10T14:44:59Z 2010-04-16T00:00:00Z

The economic impact of the little ice age Kelly, Morgan; Ó Gráda, Cormac We investigate by how much the Little Ice Age reduced the harvests on which pre-industrial Europeans relied for survival. We find that weather strongly affected crop yields, but can find little evidence that western Europe experienced long swings or structural breaks in climate. Instead, annual summer temperature reconstructions between the fourteenth and twentieth centuries behave as almost independent draws from a distribution with a constant mean but time varying volatility; while winter temperatures behave similarly until the late nineteenth century when they rise markedly, consistent with anthropogenic global warming. Our results suggest that the existing consensus about a Little Ice Age in western Europe stems from a Slutsky effect, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing data prior to analysis induces spurious cyclicality in uncorrelated data.

2010-04-16T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2648 2010-12-10T10:27:30Z 2010-05-20T00:00:00Z

What did abolishing university fees in Ireland do? Denny, Kevin University tuition fees for undergraduates were abolished in Ireland in 1996. This paper examines the effect of this reform on the socioeconomic gradient (SES) to determine whether the reform was successful in achieving its objective of promoting educational equality. It finds that the reform clearly did not have that effect. It is also shown that the university/SES gradient can be explained by differential performance at second level which also explains the gap between the sexes. Students from white collar backgrounds do significantly better in their final second level exams than the children of blue‐collar workers. The results are very similar to recent findings for the UK. I also find that certain demographic characteristics have large negative effects on school performance i.e. having a disabled or deceased parent. The results show that the effect of SES on school performance is generally stronger for those at the lower end of the conditional distribution of academic attainment.

2010-05-20T00:00:00Z Ó Gráda, Cormac http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2647 2010-12-10T10:16:55Z 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z

School attendance and literacy before the famine : a simple baronial analysis Ó Gráda, Cormac This paper complements a much larger study of school attendance in pre-famine Ireland by FitzGerald (2010). It exploits some of the data generated by that study to analyze further some of the determinants of schooling and literacy in the 1820s and 1840s.

2010-07-01T00:00:00Z Whelan, Karl http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2646 2010-12-09T17:05:56Z 2010-04-01T00:00:00Z

Global imbalances and the financial crisis Whelan, Karl Did global imbalances cause the financial crisis? A number of influential figures have argued that inflows of foreign capital into the US due to the current account deficit helped to trigger the crisis. This paper argues that the evidence for this position is weak. The capital inflows into the US associated with the current account deficit were also not the key factor driving foreign purchases of US toxic assets. The so-called global savings glut was not as significant a pattern as is often presented. Macroeconomic policies that reduced global imbalances could have been adopted but these would probably not have prevented the crisis. Global policy efforts to prevent a recurrence of the financial crisis need to focus on improved banking regulation. Reducing global imbalances should be of secondary importance.

2010-04-01T00:00:00Z D'Agostino, Antonello McQuinn, Kieran Whelan, Karl http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2645 2010-12-09T16:59:25Z 2010-04-01T00:00:00Z

Are some forecasters really better than others? D'Agostino, Antonello; McQuinn, Kieran; Whelan, Karl In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will perform better than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variation and thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present a simple test of the null hypothesis that all forecasters in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters have equal ability. We construct a test statistic that reflects both the relative and absolute performance of the forecaster and use bootstrap techniques to compare the empirical results with the equivalents obtained under the null hypothesis of equal forecaster ability. Results suggests limited evidence for the idea that the best forecasters are actually innately better than others, though there is evidence that a relatively small group of forecasters perform very poorly.

2010-04-01T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin Doyle, Orla O'Reilly, Patricia O'Sullivan, Vincent http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2644 2010-12-09T16:51:31Z 2010-04-07T00:00:00Z

Money, mentoring and making friends : the impact of a multidimensional access program on student performance Denny, Kevin; Doyle, Orla; O'Reilly, Patricia; O'Sullivan, Vincent There is a well established socioeconomic gradient in educational attainment, despite much effort in recent decades to address this inequality. This study evaluates a university access program that provides financial, academic and social support to low socioeconomic status (SES) students using a natural experiment which exploits the time variation in the expansion of the program across schools. The program has parallels with US affirmative actions programs, although preferential treatment is based on SES rather than ethnicity. Evaluating the effectiveness of programs targeting disadvantaged students in Ireland is particularly salient given the high rate of return to education and the lack of intergenerational mobility in educational attainment. Overall, we identify positive treatment effects on first year exam performance, progression to second year and final year graduation rates, with the impact often stronger for higher ability students. We find similar patterns of results for students that entered through the regular system and the ‘affirmative action’ group i.e. the students that entered with lower high school grades. The program affects the performance of both male and female students, albeit in different ways. This study suggests that access programs can be an effective means of improving academic outcomes for socio-economically disadvantaged students.

2010-04-07T00:00:00Z Black, Sandra E. Devereux, Paul J. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2643 2010-12-09T16:38:46Z 2010-04-01T00:00:00Z

Recent developments in intergenerational mobility Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul J.

2010-04-01T00:00:00Z Cole, Matthew T. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2642 2010-12-09T15:20:55Z 2010-04-01T00:00:00Z

Not all trade restrictions are created equally Cole, Matthew T. There has been great focus in the recent trade theory literature on the introduction of firm heterogeneity into trade models. This introduction has highlighted the importance of the entry/exit decision of firms in response to changes in trade barriers. However, it is typical in many of these models to use iceberg transport costs as a general form of trade barriers that can be interchangeable with ad valorem tariffs. I show that this is not always an appropriate conclusion. Specifically, I illustrate that profit for an exporter is more elastic in response to tariffs than iceberg transport costs, which has implications for total product variety. One such implication is the possibility for there to be an anti-variety effect associated with lower transport costs while there also being a pro-variety effect associated with lower tariffs.

2010-04-01T00:00:00Z Davies, Ronald B. Paz, Lourenço http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2641 2010-12-09T15:15:50Z 2010-04-05T00:00:00Z

Tariffs Versus VAT in the presence of heterogeneous firms and an informal sector Davies, Ronald B.; Paz, Lourenço The debate over the use of tariffs or value added taxes in developing countries has focused on the difficulty of collecting VAT from the informal sector of the economy. This paper contributes by considering this issue with heterogeneous firms and endogenous entry. This yields two new results. First, a cut in the tariff in and of itself can reduce the size of the informal sector. Second, the imposition of a VAT need not increase the number of informal firms. In fact, for many parameterizations of the model, higher VAT reduces informality. Despite this, whether a revenue neutral shift from tariffs to VAT increases or decreases welfare depends on the parametrization. Therefore while this move may be welfare improving in some cases, it is not a one-size fits all policy.

2010-04-05T00:00:00Z Batrakova, Svetlana Davies, Ronald B. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2638 2010-12-09T11:39:44Z 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z

Is there an environmental benefit to being an exporter? Evidence from firm level data Batrakova, Svetlana; Davies, Ronald B. One of the greatest concerns over globalisation is its impact on the environment. This paper contributes to this debate by analysing the consequences of becoming an exporter on a firm's energy consumption. We show both theoretically and empirically that for low fuel intensity firms exporting status is associated with higher fuel consumption while for high fuel intensity firms exporting is results in decreased fuel consumption. Further analysis reveals that higher fuel consumption of low fuel intensity firms occurs after exporting, perhaps as a response to increased production. In contrast, firms using relatively large quantities of fuel decrease their energy use after exporting, perhaps by adopting more fuel-effcient technology. These results indicate that the use of aggregate data, as is the case in almost all studies of trade and the environment, is likely to conceal important connections between the two.

2010-03-01T00:00:00Z Madden, David (David Patrick) http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2636 2010-12-08T16:41:40Z 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z

A profile of obesity in Ireland, 2002-2007 Madden, David (David Patrick) Using the nationally representative Slan dataset we take a number of approaches to profile the change in obesity in Ireland over the 2002-2007 period. There is no evidence of either first or second order stochastic dominance between the two years. There is evidence that obesity and overweight are relatively more concentrated amongst males, the old and those with lower educational achievement. While obesity rose slightly over the period this was due to a rise in the average level of body mass index rather than a change in the shape of the distribution. Finally a semi-parametric decomposition of the change in the distribution over time indicates that the change in obesity arose not because of changes in population characteristics but rather the in the impact of these characteristics on body mass index.

2010-03-01T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin Doyle, Orla http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2635 2010-12-08T16:38:31Z 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z

The causal effect of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive development : a quasi-experimental design Denny, Kevin; Doyle, Orla Objective: To estimate the causal effect of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive skills as measured at ages 3, 5, 7 and 11. Design: An instrumental variable (IV) strategy which provides a correction method for dealing with selection bias. Standard linear regression models are compared to two-stage least squares models to test for the presence of endogeneity. The consistency of the results across multiple sources is also tested using data from two prospective longitudinal studies collected 40-years apart. Setting: The 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 2000 UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Participants: Data on 11,792 (age 3) and 9117 (age 5) children in MCS and 4923 (age 7 and 11) children in NCDS. Main outcome measures: Cognitive ability is measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment (age 3); Foundation Stage Profile (age 5); and tests of general ability including mathematics, comprehension, verbal and non-verbal skills (ages 7 and 11). Results: The duration of breastfeeding has a small, but significant, effect on children’s cognitive skills in the linear regression models at ages 3, 5, 7 and 11, but no effect in the IV models. However, in all cases, the hypothesis that breastfeeding is endogenous is rejected, indicating that the results of the linear regressions are valid. Conclusion: The relationship between breastfeeding and cognitive ability is not driven by selection bias once a rich set of confounders are included. IV methods can therefore be used to test for the presence of selection bias and are a useful alternative for identifying causal relationships when randomised control trials are not feasible. Showing that the size of the effect is similar for two cohorts born over 40 years apart, and using different measures of ability, are further indications that the relationship between breastfeeding and cognitive ability is not a statistical artefact.

2010-03-01T00:00:00Z