http://hdl.handle.net/10197/37 2013-06-20T07:31:59Z 2013-06-20T07:31:59Z Dellepiane, Sebastian Hardiman, Niamh http://hdl.handle.net/10197/4229 2013-04-08T14:09:46Z 2012-12-01T00:00:00Z

Fiscal politics in time: pathways to fiscal consolidation, 1980-2012 Dellepiane, Sebastian; Hardiman, Niamh The comparative study of debt and fiscal consolidation has acquired a new focus in the wake of the global financial crisis. This leads us to re-evaluate the literature on fiscal consolidation that flourished during the 1980s and 1990s. The conventional approach segments episodes of fiscal change into discrete observations. We argue that this misses the dynamic features of government strategy, especially in the choices made between expenditure-based and revenue-based fiscal consolidation strategies. We propose a focus on pathways rather than episodes of adjustment, to recapture what Pierson terms 'politics in time'. A case-study approach facilitates analysis of complex causality that includes the structures of interest intermediation, the role of ideas in shaping the set of feasible policy choices, and the situation of national economies in the international political economy. We support our argument with qualitative data based on two case studies, Ireland and Greece, and with additional paired comparisons of Ireland with Britain, and Greece with Spain.

2012-12-01T00:00:00Z Cotter, John Gabriel, Stuart A. Roll, Richard http://hdl.handle.net/10197/3915 2012-11-23T16:55:45Z 2012-07-01T00:00:00Z

Can Metropolitan Housing Risk be Diversified? A Cautionary Tale from the Recent Boom and Bust Cotter, John; Gabriel, Stuart A.; Roll, Richard Geographic diversification is fundamental to risk mitigation among investors and insurers of housing, mortgages, and mortgage-related derivatives. To characterize diversification potential, we provide estimates of integration, spatial correlation, and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. Results reveal a high and increasing level of integration among US markets over the decade of the 2000s, especially in California. We apply integration results to assess the risk of alternative housing investment portfolios. Portfolio simulation indicates reduced diversification potential and increased risk in the wake of estimated increases in metropolitan housing market integration. Research findings provide new insights regarding the synchronous non-performance of geographically-disparate MBS investments during the late 2000s.

2012-07-01T00:00:00Z Daly, Michael Delaney, Liam McManus, Séamus http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2701 2011-01-07T17:23:08Z 2010-09-17T00:00:00Z

Risk attitudes as an independent predictor of debt Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; McManus, Séamus This paper examines how attitudes to risk relate to other psychological constructs of personality and consideration of future consequences (a proxy for time preferences) and how risk attitudes relate to credit behaviour and debt holdings. There is a small correlation between risk attitudes and consideration of future consequences. As regards personality, risk attitudes are most positively related to extraversion and openness to experience and are negatively related to neuroticism. Risk willingness is a robust predictor of debt holdings even controlling for demographics, personality, consideration of future consequences and other covariates.

2010-09-17T00:00:00Z Doyle, Orla McNamara, Kelly Cheevers, Carly Finnegan, Sarah Logue, Caitriona McEntee, Louise http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2700 2011-01-07T17:15:57Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Preparing for Life early childhood intervention : impact evaluation report 1 : recruitment and baseline characteristics Doyle, Orla; McNamara, Kelly; Cheevers, Carly; Finnegan, Sarah; Logue, Caitriona; McEntee, Louise

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Madden, David (David Patrick) http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2699 2011-01-07T17:12:22Z 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z

The socioeconomic gradient of obesity in Ireland Madden, David (David Patrick) Using the nationally representative Slan dataset we calculate concentration indices for the incidence of obesity for men and women. We finder higher concentration indices for women than for men, but we also find that concentration indices fell between 2002 and 2007. However this appears to be owing to an increased incidence of obesity amongst better off people rather than decreased obesity amongst the less well-off. A decomposition of the concentration indices suggest that the greatest contribution to the gradient comes from the combination of lower rates of obesity amongst those with 3rd level education and their higher income.

2010-09-01T00:00:00Z Doyle, Orla Finnegan, Sarah McNamara, Kelly http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2698 2011-01-07T17:08:53Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Differential parent and teacher reports of school readiness in a disadvantaged community Doyle, Orla; Finnegan, Sarah; McNamara, Kelly Differential ratings by multiple informants are an important issue in survey design. Although much research has focused on differential reports of child behaviour, discrepancies between parent and teacher reports of children’s school readiness are less explored.

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Cheevers, Carly Doyle, Orla McNamara, Kelly http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2697 2011-01-17T16:52:24Z 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z

Child externalising and internalising behaviour in the first year of school : the role of parenting in a low SES population Cheevers, Carly; Doyle, Orla; McNamara, Kelly Successful transition and adjustment to school life is critical for a child's future success. To ease this transition a child needs to arrive equipped with the necessary skills for school. The extent of a child’s behavioural problems is one indicator of his or her level of adjustment and school readiness. A factor which is consistently associated with such behaviours is parenting practices. This study examined the role of maternal parenting behaviours on externalising and internalising behaviours displayed by children in their first year of schooling. As children living in low socioeconomic status (SES) families are at risk of both adverse parenting behaviours and childhood behavioural difficulties, the study focuses on a low SES cohort. Mothers (n = 197) reported parenting behaviours using the Parenting Styles and Dimensions Questionnaire (PSDQ; Robinson, Mandelco, Olsen, & Hart, 2001). Teachers (n = 21) rated children on how frequently they engaged in fifteen behaviours. These behaviours were subjected to an exploratory factor analysis, eliciting two externalising behaviour factors (aggressive and defiant; hyperactive and inattentive) and one internalising behaviour factor. Bivariate analyses revealed that authoritarian parenting is associated with aggressive and defiant behaviours and that permissive parenting and maternal education is associated with hyperactive and inattentive behaviours. Only the latter result remains significant in the multivariate analysis. Finally, no relationships were found between parenting practices and child internalising behaviours. Parenting behaviours explained a small proportion of the variance in child externalising behaviours, highlighting the need to educate parents in effective parenting practices.

2010-09-01T00:00:00Z Delaney, Liam Harmon, Colm Remond, Cathy http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2696 2011-01-07T16:46:13Z 2010-09-01T00:00:00Z

Decomposing gender differences in college student earnings expectations Delaney, Liam; Harmon, Colm; Remond, Cathy Despite the increasing coverage and prevalence of equality legislation and the general alignment of key determining characteristics such as educational attainment, gender differentials continue to persist in labour market outcomes, including earnings. Recently, evidence has been found supporting the role of typically unobserved non-cognitive factors in explaining these gender differentials. We contribute to this literature by testing whether gender gaps in the earnings expectations of a representative group of Irish university students are explained by simultaneously controlling for gender heterogeneity across a wide array of cognitive and noncognitive factors. Non-cognitive factors were found to play a significant role in explaining the gender gap, however, gender differentials persist even after controlling for an extensive range of cognitive and non-cognitive factors. Nearly three-quarters of the short run and two-thirds of the long run differential could not be explained.

2010-09-01T00:00:00Z Delaney, Liam Harmon, Colm Redmond, Cathy http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2695 2011-01-07T16:40:17Z 2010-08-11T00:00:00Z

Parental education, grade attainment and earnings expectations among university students Delaney, Liam; Harmon, Colm; Redmond, Cathy While there is an extensive literature on intergenerational transmission of economic outcomes (education, health and income for example), many of the pathways through which these outcomes are transmitted are not as well understood. We address this deficit by analysing the relationship between socio-economic status and child outcomes in university, based on a rich and unique dataset of university students. While large socio-economic differences in academic performance exist at the point of entry into university, these differences are substantially narrowed during the period of study. Importantly, the differences across socio-economic backgrounds in university grade attainment for female students is explained by intermediating variables such as personality, risk attitudes and time preferences, and subject/college choices. However, for male students, we explain less than half of the socio-economic gradient through these same pathways. Despite the weakening socio-economic effect in grade attainment, a key finding is that large socio-economic differentials in the earnings expectations of university students persist, even when controlling for grades in addition to our rich set of controls. Our findings pose a sizable challenge for policy in this area as they suggest that equalising educational outcomes may not translate into equal labour market outcomes.

2010-08-11T00:00:00Z Daly, Michael Delaney, Liam Doran, Peter MacLachlan, Malcolm http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2694 2011-01-07T15:12:50Z 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z

The role of awakening cortisol and psychological distress in diurnal variations in affect : a day reconstruction study Daly, Michael; Delaney, Liam; Doran, Peter; MacLachlan, Malcolm People often feel unhappy in the morning but better later in the day, and this pattern may be amplified in the distressed. Past work suggests that one function of cortisol is to energize people in the mornings. In a study of 174 students we tested to see if daily affect patterns, psychological distress, and awakening cortisol levels were interlinked. Affect levels were assessed using the Day Reconstruction Method (Kahneman, Krueger, Schkade, Schwarz, & Stone, 2004) and psychological distress was measured using the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (Antony, Bieling, Cox, Enns, & Swinson, 1998). On average positive affect increased markedly in a linear pattern across the day whilst negative affect decreased linearly. For the highly distressed this pattern was stronger for positive affect. Lower than average morning cortisol, as assessed by two saliva samples at waking and two samples 30 minutes after waking, predicted a clear increasing pattern of positive affect throughout the day. When we examined the interlinkages between affect patterns, distress, and cortisol our results showed that a pronounced linear increase in positive affect from morning through to evening occurred chiefly among distressed people with below average cortisol levels upon awakening. Psychological distress, whilst not strongly associated with morning cortisol levels, does appear to interact with cortisol levels to profoundly influence affect.

2010-07-01T00:00:00Z Chevalier, Arnaud Harmon, Colm O'Sullivan, Vincent Walker, Ian http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2693 2011-01-07T14:42:00Z 2010-07-01T00:00:00Z

The impact of parental income and education on the schooling of their children Chevalier, Arnaud; Harmon, Colm; O'Sullivan, Vincent; Walker, Ian This paper addresses the intergenerational transmission of education and investigates the extent to which early school leaving (at age 16) may be due to variations in parental background. An important contribution of the paper is to distinguish between the causal effects of parental income and parental education levels. Least squares estimation reveals conventional results – weak effects of income (when the child is 16), stronger effects of maternal education than paternal, and stronger effects on sons than daughters. We find that the education effects remain significant even when household income is included. However, when we use instrumental variable methods to simultaneously account for the endogeneity of parental education and paternal income, only maternal education remains significant (for daughters only) and becomes stronger. These estimates are consistent to various set of instruments. The impact of paternal income varies between specifications but become insignificant in our preferred specification. Our results provide limited evidence that policies alleviating income constraints at age 16 can alter schooling decisions but that policies increasing permanent income would lead to increased participation (especially for daughters). There is also evidence of intergenerational transmissions of education choice from mothers to daughters.

2010-07-01T00:00:00Z Comerford, David Delaney, Liam http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2692 2011-01-07T14:32:38Z 2010-06-01T00:00:00Z

Heterogeneous interpretation of “household expenditure” in survey reports : evidence and implications of bias Comerford, David; Delaney, Liam This paper addresses respondents’ interpretation of the term “household expenditure” when answering survey questions. A sizeable minority of respondents do not attempt to include all transactions made by every household member, interpreting the question as eliciting individual consumption. This biases estimates of expenditure downward. Furthermore, this bias is predicted by respondent characteristics.

2010-06-01T00:00:00Z Nolan, Brian Whelan, Christopher T. Maitre, Bertrand http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2691 2011-01-06T17:06:24Z 2010-05-01T00:00:00Z

Low pay, in-work poverty and economic vulnerability : a comparative analysis using EU-SILC Nolan, Brian; Whelan, Christopher T.; Maitre, Bertrand

2010-05-01T00:00:00Z Nolan, Brian Esping-Andersen, Gøsta Whelan, Christopher T. Maitre, Bertrand Wagner, Sander http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2690 2011-01-06T16:47:29Z 2010-02-01T00:00:00Z

The role of social institutions in inter-generational mobility Nolan, Brian; Esping-Andersen, Gøsta; Whelan, Christopher T.; Maitre, Bertrand; Wagner, Sander The primary goal of inter-generational mobility (IGM) research has always been to explain how and why social origins influence peoples’ life chances. This has naturally placed family attributes at centre stage. But the role of social institutions, most notably education systems, as a mediating factor has also been central to IGM theory. Indeed, generations of stratification research were premised on the core assumption that equalizing access to education would weaken the impact of social origins. In theory, policies, institutions, as well as macro-economic and historical context, have been identified as crucial in shaping patterns of social mobility (D’Addio, 2007). But apart from education, empirical research has contributed little concrete evidence on how this occurs.

2010-02-01T00:00:00Z Nolan, Brian http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2689 2011-01-06T16:16:18Z 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z

Promoting the well-being of immigrant youth Nolan, Brian The well-being of immigrant youth — of the first or second generation — is intimately tied up with their socio-economic status and success; in turn, their success and how immigrant youth relate to the society around them are important elements of social cohesion and well-being for those societies. Institutional settings, in relation to immigrants and to Welfare State structures more broadly, as well as the policies adopted within those settings, vary greatly from one developed country to the next. This opens up the potential for studying key outcomes for immigrant youth in a comparative perspective, and learning about which settings and policies appear to be more versus less effective in promoting their well-being and capitalizing on their potential. This paper sets out a framework for such an analytical exercise, drawing on recent research and monitoring efforts in the related areas of multidimensional well-being, social inclusion/exclusion, and child well-being. It then seeks to place some key findings from the disparate social science research literature on immigration and youth (principally drawing on economics and sociology) within that framework. This serves to bring out both the potential and the difficulties associated with this approach to teasing out “what works” for immigrant youth. In conclusion, the paper points to the major gaps in knowledge and what is required to make progress in learning from disparate country experiences about how best to promote the well-being on immigrant youth. Paper presented at the 2009 Jacobs Foundation Marbach Conference "Capitalizing on Migration: The Potential of Immigrant Youth", Marbach Castle, Germany, 22-24 April 2009

2010-03-01T00:00:00Z Maitre, Bertrand Nolan, Brian Voitchovsky, Sarah http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2688 2011-01-06T15:18:22Z 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z

Earnings inequality, institutions and the macroeconomy – what can we learn from Ireland’s boom years? Maitre, Bertrand; Nolan, Brian; Voitchovsky, Sarah Rapid economic growth is often expected to lead to increased returns to education and skills and thus to rising wage inequality. Ireland offers a valuable case study, with distinctive wage-setting institutions and exceptional rates of growth in output, employment and incomes in the Celtic Tiger period from 1994 to 2007. We find that dispersion in (hourly) wage inequality fell sharply to 2000, before increasing though much less sharply to 2007. Returns to both education and work experience declined considerable in the earlier period, while the increase in lower earnings relative to the median was associated with the introduction of the minimum wage in 2000, anchoring the bottom of the distribution. For 2000-2007 the faster increase in higher earnings may be associated with the changing pattern of immigration and of the employment growth in the second half of the boom, Further exploration of the factors at work towards the top of the distribution during these years is an important research priority.

2010-03-01T00:00:00Z Doyle, Orla McEntee, Louise McNamara, Kelly http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2687 2011-01-06T15:06:38Z 2010-02-01T00:00:00Z

Skills, capabilities and inequalities at school entry in a disadvantaged community Doyle, Orla; McEntee, Louise; McNamara, Kelly Socioeconomic inequalities in children’s skills and capabilities begin early in life and can have detrimental effects on future success in school. The present study examines the relationships between school readiness and sociodemographic inequalities using teacher reports of the Short Early Development Instrument in a disadvantaged urban area of Ireland. It specifically examines socioeconomic (SES) differences in skills within a low SES community in order to investigate the role of relative disadvantage on children’s development. Differences across multiple domains of school readiness are examined using Monte-Carlo permutation tests. The results show that child, family and environmental factors have an impact on children’s school readiness, with attendance in centre-based childcare having the most consistent relationship with readiness for school. In addition, the findings suggest that social class inequalities in children’s skills still exist within a disadvantaged community. These results are discussed in relation to future intervention programmes.

2010-02-01T00:00:00Z Doyle, Orla http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2686 2011-01-06T14:54:11Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Unravelling voters’ perceptions of the economy Doyle, Orla Individual perceptions of the economy are a key factor influencing voting decisions, yet they often deviate from movements in the real economy. This study investigates the formation of economic perceptions during a period of economic and political instability in the Czech Republic using a series of Economic Expectations and Attitude (EEA) surveys and yearly regional economic indicators. It measures the extent to which retrospective and prospective perceptions are related to objective measures of the economy and subjective heterogeneity at an individual level. The study finds that objective economic indicators are inadequate determinants of economic perceptions and that such perceptions can be distorted by ideological beliefs, socioeconomic characteristics and personal experiences despite turbulent economic shocks, a highly politicized economic reform process and weak party identification.

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Case, Karl E. Cotter, John Gabriel, Stuart A. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2684 2011-01-06T14:39:54Z 2009-11-01T00:00:00Z

Housing risk and return : evidence from a housing asset-pricing model Case, Karl E.; Cotter, John; Gabriel, Stuart A. This paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and post-boom housing markets. The paper specifies and tests a housing asset pricing model (H-CAPM), whereby expected returns of metropolitan-specific housing markets are equated to the market return, as represented by aggregate US house price time-series. We augment the model by examining the impact of additional risk factors including aggregate stock market returns, idiosyncratic risk, momentum, and Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) size effects. Further, we test the robustness of H-CAPM results to inclusion of controls for socioeconomic variables commonly represented in the house price literature, including changes in employment, affordability, and foreclosure incidence. Consistent with the traditional CAPM, we find a sizable and statistically significant influence of the market factor on MSA house price returns. Moreover we show that market betas have varied substantially over time. Also, we find the basic housing CAPM results are robust to the inclusion of other explanatory variables, including standard measures of risk and other housing market fundamentals. Additional tests of the validity of the model using the Fama-MacBeth framework offer further strong support of a positive risk and return relationship in housing. Our findings are supportive of the application of a housing investment risk-return framework in explanation of variation in metro-area cross-section and time-series US house price returns. Further, results strongly corroborate Case-Shiller behavioral research indicating the importance of speculative forces in the determination of U.S. housing returns.

2009-11-01T00:00:00Z Doyle, Orla Logue, Caitriona McNamara, Kelly http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2682 2011-01-18T14:29:58Z 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z

Readiness for change : evidence from a study of early childhood care and education centers Doyle, Orla; Logue, Caitriona; McNamara, Kelly This study examines factors that influence staff members’ readiness for change in early childhood settings in Ireland. The introduction of a new national framework, designed to improve the quality of Early Childhood Care and Education Centers (ECCECs), has been piloted in several communities. This study measures support for this change in organizational practices using the Organizational Change Recipients’ Belief Scale and uses correlation analysis to determine how readiness for change is linked to job satisfaction and the work environment. Results show that individual staff characteristics had little impact on support for the change, while factors related to group dynamics were significantly associated with readiness for change. Specifically, a positive work environment and greater job satisfaction were associated with a lower belief that there is a need for change, but a higher belief that the staff will be supported by management if the change is introduced.

2009-01-01T00:00:00Z Rizov, Marian Walsh, Patrick P. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2681 2011-01-05T17:04:33Z 2009-08-01T00:00:00Z

Is there a rural-urban divide? Location and productivity of UK manufacturing Rizov, Marian; Walsh, Patrick P. We compute the productivity gaps in manufacturing industries by urban, rural less sparse and rural sparse locations in the UK. This is done by using firm-specific total factor productivities, which are estimated by a semi-parametric algorithm within 4-digit manufacturing industries using FAME data over the period 1994-2001, by each location. We analyse the productivity differentials across locations by decomposing them into firm differences within the same industry and by differences that are explained by industry composition effects. Our analysis indicates that at the end of twentieth century a rural-urban divide in manufacturing productivity still remains but there is a tendency of convergence between rural and urban location categories. Even though industry productivity is different by location, industry composition effects are positively correlated with industry productivity by location suggesting that locations with high productivity are also characterised by industrial structures with higher productivity.

2009-08-01T00:00:00Z Hutchinson, John Konings, Jozef Walsh, Patrick P. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2680 2011-01-05T16:58:05Z 2009-08-01T00:00:00Z

The firm size distribution and inter-industry diversification Hutchinson, John; Konings, Jozef; Walsh, Patrick P. We show that the stylized facts of the Firm Size Distribution (FSD) by age cohorts, as shown in Cabral and Mata (2003), bind within 4-digit manufacturing industries in the UK and Belgium. As in Klepper and Thompson (2006) and Sutton (1998), we explore whether time to build a portfolio of products is a mechanism that relates age to firm size. While inter industry diversification, to some extent, accounts for the role of age, we find that the presence of economies of scope has a separate impact on firm size when controlling for age, amongst other factors. Using the techniques in Cabral and Mata’s we show that the FSD by degrees of product diversification shifts to the right, but more so in older age groups. This shows a role for inter-industry diversification over and above an age effect.

2009-08-01T00:00:00Z Comerford, David Delaney, Liam Harmon, Colm http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2679 2011-01-05T16:40:27Z 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z

Experimental tests of survey responses to expenditure questions Comerford, David; Delaney, Liam; Harmon, Colm This paper tests for a number of survey effects in the elicitation of expenditure items. In particular we examine the extent to which individuals use features of the expenditure question to construct their answers. We test whether respondents interpret question wording as researchers intend and examine the extent to which prompts, clarifications and seemingly arbitrary features of survey design influence expenditure reports. We find that over one quarter of respondents have difficulty distinguishing between “you” and “your household” when making expenditure reports; that respondents report higher pro-rata expenditure when asked to give responses on a weekly as opposed to monthly or annual time scale; that respondents give higher estimates when using a scale with a higher mid-point; and that respondents give higher aggregated expenditure when categories are presented in a disaggregated form. In summary, expenditure reports are constructed using convenient rules of thumb and available information, which will depend on the characteristics of the respondent, the expenditure domain and features of the survey question. It is crucial to further account for these features in ongoing surveys.

2009-07-01T00:00:00Z Doyle, Orla Cheevers, Carly Finnegan, Sarah McEntee, Louise McNamara, Kelly http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2678 2011-01-05T16:31:08Z 2009-06-01T00:00:00Z

Report on children's profile at school entry 2008-2009 : evaluation of the 'Preparing For Life' early childhood intervention programme Doyle, Orla; Cheevers, Carly; Finnegan, Sarah; McEntee, Louise; McNamara, Kelly The Children's Profile at School Entry (CPSE) was conducted by the UCD Geary Institute who have been commissioned by the Northside Partnership to assess the levels of school readiness in a designated disadvantaged community of Ireland, as part of an overall evaluation of the Preparing for Life (PFL) early childhood intervention programme.

2009-06-01T00:00:00Z Mariuzzo, Franco Walsh, Patrick P. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2677 2011-01-21T16:53:36Z 2009-06-01T00:00:00Z

Corn market dynamics and the Joint Executive Committee (1880-1886) Mariuzzo, Franco; Walsh, Patrick P. We incorporate previously omitted controls of external conditions in transportation and commodity markets into Porter's (1983) analysis of industry demand, conduct and stability of the JEC railroad cartel. We estimate the equilibrium price path, non-parametrically, and find that the reaction of the JEC in its rate setting to the nature of rate setting, over alternative modes of conveyance, is very much predicted by the theoretical considerations in Haltiwanger and Harrington (1991). Periods of Cartel instability are triggered by unexpected booms in corn markets in New York, amongst other factors. The latter is consistent with the Green and Porter (1984) theory. Keywords: Corn Market Spot and Future Weekly Prices in Chicago and New York, Demand Cycles, Inventory Management in New York, JEC Railroad Cartel Pricing, Outside Transportation Options, Structural Modeling.

2009-06-01T00:00:00Z Mariuzzo, Franco Walsh, Patrick P. Whelan, Ciara http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2676 2011-01-05T15:12:49Z 2010-01-01T00:00:00Z

Coverage of retail stores and discrete choice models of demand : estimating price elasticities and welfare effects Mariuzzo, Franco; Walsh, Patrick P.; Whelan, Ciara Consumers' choice set of products within stores can be limited. Ackerberg and Rysman (2005) address this problem by modeling unobserved consumer preferences over products and retail stores, leading to augmented demand specifications. Having Carbonated Soft Drink product level data, where we observe products' store coverage, we are able to estimate their logit, nested logit and random coefficient logit specifications of demand in a structural model of equilibrium. Allowing for store coverage turns out to have a very significant impact on the estimated structural parameters and on the predictive power of the model. Taking these estimated structural parameters we perform a counterfactual whereby stores carry all products in the market. We find systematic increases in price elasticities and welfare in our new equilibrium. Competition in markets is more curtailed than normally assumed in structural models of industries.

2010-01-01T00:00:00Z Walsh, Patrick P. Li, Qi http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2675 2011-01-05T15:00:58Z 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z

The firm size distribution in a small open economy : theory and evidence Walsh, Patrick P.; Li, Qi We construct a theoretical model of the dynamic processes (firm entry, growth, decline, and exit) that underpin the determination of a limiting firm size distribution (FSD). In particular, we model such dynamic processes using key structural parameters; sunk cost, exogenous entry constraints, and opportunity values of finite duration. The limiting FSD we derive, in steady state, turns out to be a combination of a Logarithmic and Zipf distribution. We estimate these structural parameters using long periods of Irish company data for defined cohorts of firms, in terms of trade orientation, within narrowly defined industries. Within non-exporting and exporting samples of companies our model fits the actual FSD well with a good return to the Zipf distribution in the upper tail, that is less dependent on the estimated structural 2 parameters, and a good return at the lower tail, where the Logarithmic effects are endogenously driven by firm heterogeneity in estimated structural parameters.

2009-07-01T00:00:00Z Kennedy, Jean Delaney, Liam McGloin, Aileen Wall, Patrick G. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2674 2010-12-20T16:20:05Z 2009-06-01T00:00:00Z

Public perceptions of the dioxin crisis in Irish pork Kennedy, Jean; Delaney, Liam; McGloin, Aileen; Wall, Patrick G. In early December 2008, a global recall of Irish pork was initiated as a result of a subset of the national pork output being contaminated with dioxin. In this study, members of a panel from an internet-based longitudinal monitor of public opinion on food and health, was used to assess public perceptions about the dioxin incident in late December. A larger proportion of respondents reported that that there was a ‘very high’ health risk from pork (8.6 %) than any other food of animal origin. The risk posed to human health from dioxins was considered to be relatively high compared to a broad range of potential food and non-food risks. The majority of respondents (70.5 %) accepted that the way in which the authorities managed the crisis was ‘adequate’ or ‘very efficient’. These findings should be considered in light of the following facts: the European Food Safety Authority and the Irish authorities announced that there was no risk to human health from the dioxins in pork, there was extensive media attention about the dioxin incident, and the Irish Government had to introduce a 200 million euro compensation package for the Irish pork industry which was funded by the Irish taxpayer.

2009-06-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier Kwenda, Prudence http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2673 2010-12-20T16:03:20Z 2009-06-01T00:00:00Z

The informal sector wage gap : new evidence using quantile estimations on panel data Bargain, Olivier; Kwenda, Prudence This paper provides new evidence on the wage gap between informal and formal salary workers in South Africa, Brazil and Mexico. We use rich datasets that allow us to define informality in a relatively comparable fashion across countries. We compute precise wage differentials by accounting for taxes paid in the formal sector. For each country, we analyze how the sector wage gap varies within groups, between groups and over time. To account for unobserved heterogeneity, we use large (unbalanced) panels to estimate fixed effects models at the mean and at different quantiles of the wage distribution. We find that unobserved heterogeneity explains a large part of the (conditional) wage gap. The remaining informal sector wage penalty is large in the lower part of the distribution but almost disappears at the top. The penalty primarily concerns young workers and is found to be procyclical. We carefully investigate the robustness of these results and discuss their policy implications as well as regularities across countries.

2009-06-01T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2670 2010-12-20T15:19:43Z 2010-10-01T00:00:00Z

Height and well-being amongst older Europeans Denny, Kevin This paper uses a cross‐country representative sample of Europeans over the age of 50 to analyse whether individuals’ height is associated with higher or lower levels of well‐being. Two outcomes are used: a measure of depression symptoms reported by individuals and a categorical measure of life satisfaction. It is shown that there is a concave relationship between height and symptoms of depression. These results are sensitive to the inclusion of several sets of controls reflecting demographics, human capital and health status. While parsimonious models suggest that height is protective against depression, the addition of controls, particularly related to health, suggests the reverse effect: tall people are predicted to have slightly more symptoms of depression. Height has no significant association with life satisfaction in models with controls for health and human capital.

2010-10-01T00:00:00Z Ryan, Martin Delaney, Liam Harmon, Colm http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2658 2010-12-20T14:31:08Z 2010-08-01T00:00:00Z

Micro-level determinants of lecture attendance and additional study-hours Ryan, Martin; Delaney, Liam; Harmon, Colm This paper uses novel measures of individual differences that produce new insights about student inputs into the (higher) education production function. The inputs examined are lecture attendance and additional study-hours. The data were collected through a web-survey that the authors designed. The analysis includes the following measures: willingness to take risks, consideration of future consequences and non-cognitive ability traits. Besides age, gender and year of study, the main determinants of lecture attendance and additional study-hours are attitude to risk, future-orientation and conscientiousness. In addition, future-orientation, and in particular conscientiousness, determine lecture attendance to a greater extent than they determine additional study. Finally, we show that family income and financial transfers (from both parents and the state) do not determine any educational input. This study suggests that non-cognitive abilities may be more important than financial constraints in the determination of inputs related to educational production functions.

2010-08-01T00:00:00Z Black, Sandra E. Devereux, Paul J. Salvanes, Kjell G. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2651 2011-01-05T16:23:55Z 2010-05-01T00:00:00Z

Under pressure? The effect of peers on outcomes of young adults Black, Sandra E.; Devereux, Paul J.; Salvanes, Kjell G. A variety of public campaigns, including the “Just Say No” campaign of the 1980s and 1990s that encouraged teenagers to “Just Say No to Drugs”, are based on the premise that teenagers are very susceptible to peer influences. Despite this, very little is known about the effect of school peers on the long-run outcomes of teenagers. This is primarily due to two factors: the absence of information on peers merged with long-run outcomes of individuals and, equally important, the difficulty of separately identifying the role of peers. This paper uses data on the population of Norway and idiosyncratic variation in cohort composition within schools to examine the role of peer composition in 9th grade on longer-run outcomes such as IQ scores at age 18, teenage childbearing, post-compulsory schooling educational track, adult labor market status, and earnings. We find that outcomes are influenced by the proportion of females in the grade, and these effects differ for men and women. Other peer variables (average age, average mother’s education) have little impact on the outcomes of teenagers.

2010-05-01T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2648 2010-12-10T10:27:30Z 2010-05-20T00:00:00Z

What did abolishing university fees in Ireland do? Denny, Kevin University tuition fees for undergraduates were abolished in Ireland in 1996. This paper examines the effect of this reform on the socioeconomic gradient (SES) to determine whether the reform was successful in achieving its objective of promoting educational equality. It finds that the reform clearly did not have that effect. It is also shown that the university/SES gradient can be explained by differential performance at second level which also explains the gap between the sexes. Students from white collar backgrounds do significantly better in their final second level exams than the children of blue‐collar workers. The results are very similar to recent findings for the UK. I also find that certain demographic characteristics have large negative effects on school performance i.e. having a disabled or deceased parent. The results show that the effect of SES on school performance is generally stronger for those at the lower end of the conditional distribution of academic attainment.

2010-05-20T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin Doyle, Orla O'Reilly, Patricia O'Sullivan, Vincent http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2644 2010-12-09T16:51:31Z 2010-04-07T00:00:00Z

Money, mentoring and making friends : the impact of a multidimensional access program on student performance Denny, Kevin; Doyle, Orla; O'Reilly, Patricia; O'Sullivan, Vincent There is a well established socioeconomic gradient in educational attainment, despite much effort in recent decades to address this inequality. This study evaluates a university access program that provides financial, academic and social support to low socioeconomic status (SES) students using a natural experiment which exploits the time variation in the expansion of the program across schools. The program has parallels with US affirmative actions programs, although preferential treatment is based on SES rather than ethnicity. Evaluating the effectiveness of programs targeting disadvantaged students in Ireland is particularly salient given the high rate of return to education and the lack of intergenerational mobility in educational attainment. Overall, we identify positive treatment effects on first year exam performance, progression to second year and final year graduation rates, with the impact often stronger for higher ability students. We find similar patterns of results for students that entered through the regular system and the ‘affirmative action’ group i.e. the students that entered with lower high school grades. The program affects the performance of both male and female students, albeit in different ways. This study suggests that access programs can be an effective means of improving academic outcomes for socio-economically disadvantaged students.

2010-04-07T00:00:00Z Madden, David (David Patrick) http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2636 2010-12-08T16:41:40Z 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z

A profile of obesity in Ireland, 2002-2007 Madden, David (David Patrick) Using the nationally representative Slan dataset we take a number of approaches to profile the change in obesity in Ireland over the 2002-2007 period. There is no evidence of either first or second order stochastic dominance between the two years. There is evidence that obesity and overweight are relatively more concentrated amongst males, the old and those with lower educational achievement. While obesity rose slightly over the period this was due to a rise in the average level of body mass index rather than a change in the shape of the distribution. Finally a semi-parametric decomposition of the change in the distribution over time indicates that the change in obesity arose not because of changes in population characteristics but rather the in the impact of these characteristics on body mass index.

2010-03-01T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin Doyle, Orla http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2635 2010-12-08T16:38:31Z 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z

The causal effect of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive development : a quasi-experimental design Denny, Kevin; Doyle, Orla Objective: To estimate the causal effect of breastfeeding on children’s cognitive skills as measured at ages 3, 5, 7 and 11. Design: An instrumental variable (IV) strategy which provides a correction method for dealing with selection bias. Standard linear regression models are compared to two-stage least squares models to test for the presence of endogeneity. The consistency of the results across multiple sources is also tested using data from two prospective longitudinal studies collected 40-years apart. Setting: The 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 2000 UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS). Participants: Data on 11,792 (age 3) and 9117 (age 5) children in MCS and 4923 (age 7 and 11) children in NCDS. Main outcome measures: Cognitive ability is measured by the Bracken School Readiness Assessment (age 3); Foundation Stage Profile (age 5); and tests of general ability including mathematics, comprehension, verbal and non-verbal skills (ages 7 and 11). Results: The duration of breastfeeding has a small, but significant, effect on children’s cognitive skills in the linear regression models at ages 3, 5, 7 and 11, but no effect in the IV models. However, in all cases, the hypothesis that breastfeeding is endogenous is rejected, indicating that the results of the linear regressions are valid. Conclusion: The relationship between breastfeeding and cognitive ability is not driven by selection bias once a rich set of confounders are included. IV methods can therefore be used to test for the presence of selection bias and are a useful alternative for identifying causal relationships when randomised control trials are not feasible. Showing that the size of the effect is similar for two cohorts born over 40 years apart, and using different measures of ability, are further indications that the relationship between breastfeeding and cognitive ability is not a statistical artefact.

2010-03-01T00:00:00Z Kelly, Morgan http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2630 2010-12-08T16:33:26Z 2009-12-21T00:00:00Z

The Irish credit bubble Kelly, Morgan

2009-12-21T00:00:00Z Delaney, Liam McGovern, Mark Smith, James P. http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2627 2010-12-08T16:29:39Z 2009-12-01T00:00:00Z

From Angela’s Ashes to the Celtic Tiger : early life conditions and adult health in Ireland Delaney, Liam; McGovern, Mark; Smith, James P. We use data from the Irish census and exploit regional and temporal variation in infant mortality rates over the 20th century to examine effects of early life conditions on later life health. Our main identification is public health interventions which eliminated the Irish urban infant mortality penalty. Estimates suggest that a unit decrease in mortality rates at time of birth reduces the probability of being disabled as an adult by between .03 and .05 percentage points. We find that individuals from lower socio economic groups had marginal effects of reduced infant mortality twice as large as those at the top.

2009-12-01T00:00:00Z Gates, Susan M. Karaca-Mandic, Pinar Burgdorf, James R. Kapur, Kanika http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2623 2010-12-08T16:21:17Z 2009-11-01T00:00:00Z

Health savings accounts for small businesses and entrepreneurs : shopping, take-Up and implementation challenges Gates, Susan M.; Karaca-Mandic, Pinar; Burgdorf, James R.; Kapur, Kanika A combination of high deductible health plans (HDHPs) and health savings accounts (HSAs) holds promise for expanding health insurance for small firms. We provide information on HSA take-up and shopping behavior from a 2008 survey of female small business owners, revealing that the HSA marketplace can be confusing for small firms. HSAs may have expanded access to health insurance for the smallest firms (under three employees), but not for small firms more generally. A sizable number of firms offering HSA-eligible insurance did not offer attached HSAs. Firms offering HSAs were satisfied with their experiences, but faced challenges in implementing them.

2009-11-01T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2616 2010-12-08T15:25:16Z 2009-10-21T00:00:00Z

On a dubious theory of cross-country differences in intelligence Denny, Kevin Kanazawa (2007) offers an explanation for the variation across countries of average intelligence. It is based on the idea human intelligence is a domain specific adaptation and that both temperature and the distance from some putative point of origin are proxies for the degree of novelty that humans in a country have experienced. However the argument ignores many other considerations and is a priori weak and the data used questionable. A particular problem is that in calculating distances between countries it implicitly assumes that the earth is flat. This makes all the estimates biased and unreliable.

2009-10-21T00:00:00Z Denny, Kevin http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2606 2010-12-08T15:23:00Z 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z

Very simple marginal effects in some discrete choice models Denny, Kevin I show a simple back-of-the-envelope method for calculating marginal effects in binary choice and count data models. The approach suggested here focuses attention on marginal effects at different points in the distribution of the dependent variable rather than representative points in the joint distribution of the explanatory variables. For binary models, if the mean of the dependent variable is between 0.4 and 0.6 then dividing the logit coefficient by 4 or multiplying the probit coefficient by 0.4 should be moderately accurate.

2009-07-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2604 2010-12-07T16:55:23Z 2009-02-01T00:00:00Z

The distributional effects of tax-benefit policies under New Labour : a Shapley decomposition Bargain, Olivier Using counterfactual microsimulations, Shapley decompositions of time change in inequality and poverty indices make it possible to disentangle and quantify the relative effect of tax-benefi…t policy changes, compared to all other effects including shifts in the distribution of market income. Using this approach also helps to clarify the different issues underlying the distributional evaluation of policy reforms. An application to the UK (1998-2001) con…firms previous fi…ndings that inequality and depth of poverty would have increased under the …first New Labour government, had important reforms like the extensions of income support and tax credits not been implemented. These reforms have also contributed to substantially reduce poverty among families with children and pensioners.

2009-02-01T00:00:00Z Bargain, Olivier Doorley, Karina http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2603 2010-12-07T16:53:18Z 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z

Caught in the trap? The disincentive effect of social assistance Bargain, Olivier; Doorley, Karina While …financial incentives usually have a signifi…cant effect on the labor supply of married women and single mothers, the evidence about the participation elasticity of childless singles, and single males especially, is more scant. This is, however, important in countries like France and Germany, where single individuals constitute the core of social assistance recipients. As yet, there is no conclusive evidence about whether, and to what extent, this group is affected by the fi…nancial disincentives embedded in the generous redistributive programs in place in these countries. In this paper, we exploit a particular feature of the main welfare scheme in France (Revenu Minimum d'Insertion, RMI), namely that childless adults under age 25 are not eligible for it. Using a regression discontinuity approach and the French micro-census data, we …find that the RMI reduces the employment of uneducated single men by 7% - 10%. Important policy implications are drawn.

2009-07-01T00:00:00Z Cotter, John Hanly, Jim http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2599 2010-12-08T16:44:40Z 2009-08-01T00:00:00Z

Time varying risk aversion : an application to energy hedging Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it has typically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of risk aversion that is based on the observed risk preferences of energy hedging market participants. The resulting estimates are applied to derive explicit risk aversion based optimal hedge strategies for both short and long hedgers. Out-of-sample results are also presented based on a unique approach that allows us to forecast risk aversion, thereby estimating hedge strategies that address the potential future needs of energy hedgers. We find that the risk aversion based hedges differ significantly from simpler OLS hedges. When implemented in-sample, risk aversion hedges for short hedgers outperform the OLS hedge ratio in a utility based comparison.

2009-08-01T00:00:00Z Cotter, John Hanly, Jim http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2597 2011-01-06T14:30:11Z 2009-08-01T00:00:00Z

Hedging : scaling and the investor horizon Cotter, John; Hanly, Jim This paper examines the volatility and covariance dynamics of cash and futures contracts that underlie the Optimal Hedge Ratio (OHR) across different hedging time horizons. We examine whether hedge ratios calculated over a short term hedging horizon can be scaled and successfully applied to longer term horizons. We also test the equivalence of scaled hedge ratios with those calculated directly from lower frequency data and compare them in terms of hedging effectiveness. Our findings show that the volatility and covariance dynamics may differ considerably depending on the hedging horizon and this gives rise to significant differences between short term and longer term hedges. Despite this, scaling provides good hedging outcomes in terms of risk reduction which are comparable to those based on direct estimation.

2009-08-01T00:00:00Z Cotter, John http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2595 2010-11-25T17:08:03Z 2009-03-01T00:00:00Z

Scaling conditional tail probability and quantile estimators Cotter, John

2009-03-01T00:00:00Z Pavan, Marina Colussi, Aldo http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1931 2010-04-21T15:56:54Z 2008-02-27T00:00:00Z

Assessing the impact of public transfers on private risk sharing arrangements : evidence from a randomized experiment in Mexico Pavan, Marina; Colussi, Aldo We adopt a structural approach to studying the effects of public transfers on consumption smoothing, risk sharing and welfare in small village economies. We calibrate the key parameters of a dynamic limited commitment model using data gathered as part of the Mexican Progresa program, and take advantage of the randomized experimental design of the data to validate the model using the treatment sample. The limited commitment model enriched to allow for unobserved heterogeneity in preferences can reasonably well explain consumption dynamics and cross-sectional distributions. The calibrated model correctly predicts the increase in consumption smoothing of transfers’ recipients, and the decrease in risk sharing between beneficiaries and non beneficiaries of the program. Progresa transfers are found to crowd-out between 3% and 10% of the pre-existing private transfers, but the overall direct effect of the subsidy on consumption is welfare improving for all households. Last, we use our structural model to evaluate a counterfactual, fully funded, insurance scheme.

2008-02-27T00:00:00Z Irvine, Ian http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1930 2010-04-20T16:24:32Z 2008-08-06T00:00:00Z

Smoking intensity, compensatory behavior and tobacco tax policy Irvine, Ian Smokers not only choose the number of cigarettes to smoke in any given period on the basis of price, they also choose the intensity with which to smoke - that is, how much nicotine to inhale. The possibility that quantity-reducing tax policies may be mitigated, or even completely offset, by higher intensity has been raised recently by Adda and Cornaglia (2006). The objective of this paper is to examine this possibility in the context of a utility-maximizing model of smoking that is based on known toxicological patterns. After calibrating this model to reflect observed behaviors, it is concluded that continuing smokers offset about one third of the quantity reducing impact of higher taxes. Compensatory behavior thus reduces tax effectiveness, but does not render it neutral. While toxicology has long recognized that nicotine inventory management is a key ingredient in smoking behaviour, this paper is the first to incorporate such knowledge into a utility-price based maximizing model.

2008-08-06T00:00:00Z Ryan, Martin McCarthy, Siobhan Newman, Carol http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1929 2010-04-20T15:55:34Z 2007-07-03T00:00:00Z

Household characteristics of higher education participants Ryan, Martin; McCarthy, Siobhan; Newman, Carol The aim of this paper is to analyse the characteristics of Irish households that have a member participating in higher education, using surveys of Irish households collected in 1994-95 and 1999-2000. The results do not show a significant effect of income; this is notable, especially alongside the strong result that longer-term factors such as household wealth and cultural capital have a significant effect. This lends support to the argument proposed by Heckman (2000) that family income is only important over the entire educational investment cycle of a child. However, the importance of grant eligibility is a notable result, which suggests that short-term financial constraints cannot be dismissed. A combination of suitably beneficial short-term and long-term factors may be important for encouraging participation in higher education.

2007-07-03T00:00:00Z Inglis, Tom http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1928 2010-04-20T15:35:26Z 2004-12-01T00:00:00Z

Catholic identity, habitus and practice in contemporary Ireland Inglis, Tom

2004-12-01T00:00:00Z