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Browsing by Author "Kelly, Morgan"

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Agricultural output, calories and living standards in England before and during the Industrial Revolution

Kelly, Morgan ; Ó Gráda, Cormac (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2012-04)

This paper surveys the results of four recent, separate attempts at estimating agricultural output and food availability in England and Wales at points between the Middle Ages and the Industrial Revolution. It highlights ...
All their eggs in one basket : portfolio diversification of US households

Kelly, Morgan (Elsevier Science B.V., 1995-06)

This paper uses data from the Survey of Consumer Finances to assess how well mean-variance efficiency describes the portfolio diversification of US households. It does not seem to work well. The median stockholder owns a ...
Big shocks versus small shocks in a dynamic stochastic economy with many interacting agents

Kelly, Morgan (Elsevier Science B.V., 1997-03)

This paper investigates the conditions under which a dynamic, stochastic macroeconomic model with many interacting agents will exhibit the ‘small shocks, large shocks’ property that is often said to characterize observed ...
Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature : did Europe experience a little Ice Age?

Kelly, Morgan ; Ó Gráda, Cormac (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2012-03)

We analyze the timing and extent of northern European temperature falls during the Little Ice Age, using standard temperature reconstructions. However, we can find little evidence of long swings or structural breaks in ...
Components of growth in current public expenditure on education and health

Kelly, Morgan (Economic and Social Research Institute, 1984)
Developing rotten institutions

Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2005-08)

This paper models corruption as optimal parasitism in organizations where teams of agents are weakly restrained by principals. Each agent takes on part of the role of principal, choosing how much to invest in policing ...
Do noise traders influence stock prices?

Kelly, Morgan (Blackwell, 1997-08)

This paper tests a smart money-noise trader model directly by comparing its predictions with the behavior of actual investors. It assumes that individual probability of being a noise trader is diminishing in income, ...
Do noise traders influence stock prices?

Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 1996-03)
The dynamics of Smithian growth

Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 1996-03)
The dynamics of Smithian growth

Kelly, Morgan (MIT Press Journals, 1997-08)

This paper analyzes the evolution of an economy where growth is driven by increased specialization caused by the geographical expansion of markets. It proves that such Smithian growth exhibits generic threshold behavior. ...
The economic impact of the little ice age

Kelly, Morgan ; Ó Gráda, Cormac (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2010-04-16)

We investigate by how much the Little Ice Age reduced the harvests on which pre-industrial Europeans relied for survival. We find that weather strongly affected crop yields, but can find little evidence that western ...
Financial market contagion

Kelly, Morgan (Palgrave Macmillan, 2008)

The power of the metaphor of contagion—that beliefs, actions, and strategies spread among economic agents like pathogens among biological organisms— causes it to recur in disparate areas of economics. This article focusses ...
Human capital in exogenous and endogenous growth

Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 1996-03)

Exogenous growth models imply that, if human capital formation is endogenous, there is a negative relationship between human capital and growth. This prediction is tested against the alternative of the Lucas- Uzawa model ...
Inequality and crime

Kelly, Morgan (MIT Press, 2000-11)

This paper considers the relationship between inequality and crime using data from urban counties. The behavior of property and violent crime are quite different. Inequality has no effect on property crime but a strong and ...
The invention of invention

Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2005-09)

This paper models an industrial revolution as a qualitative transition from a world where innovation is infrequent and haphazard to one where it is continuous and systematic. Pre-industrial innovation is treated as a ...
The Irish credit bubble

Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin. School of EconomicsUniversity College Dublin. Geary Institute, 2009-12-21)
Labour market networks, underclasses, and inequality

Kelly, Morgan ; Finneran, Lisa (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 1996-09)
Linkages, thresholds, and development

Kelly, Morgan (Springer Science + Business Media, 2001-03)

Growth is rare historically, with short expansions interspersed with long periods of stasis. We examine how well this can be explained by a general class of Schumpeterian growth models that treat development as a progress ...
Living standards and mortality since the Middle Ages

Kelly, Morgan ; Ó Gráda, Cormac (University College Dublin. School of Economics, 2010-09)

Existing studies find little connection between living standards and mortality in England, but go back only to the sixteenth century. Using new data on inheritances, we extend estimates of mortality back to the ...
Market contagion : evidence from the panics of 1854 and 1857

Ó Gráda, Cormac ; Kelly, Morgan (University College Dublin, Centre for Economic Research, 1999-09)